David W. Tiffany JD, LLM.
Chinese ships and planes are playing a dangerous game of chicken with United States military forces in the Strait of Taiwan. While the narrative is a dispute about the right of free passage over international waters, the elephant in the room is the unresolved civil war, which caused the exile of Nationalist Chinese in 1949 to the island province of Taiwan. The victors who govern the mainland [hereinafter, China] and endured the growing pains of establishing their modern state have never conceded Taiwan to the "Nationalists". Can Taiwan ever become an independent state recognized by China? Probably not in the traditional sense of a separate country. If that outcome cannot be brokered, can Taiwan be peacefully assimilated as a province of China? Maybe, but not in the near future based upon the history of the parties. Having said that, I think there is a solution to this dilemma that does not include military action.
Because the parties cannot go back in time to 1949-1950 when the Nationalists had the best leverage to become an independent state, the crucial questions are, what has changed since 1949? How do these changes impact the road to an agreement?
Modern travel: From 1949 - 1980 there was not extensive travel for Chinese citizens or Nationalists to the four corners of the globe. Today, that is not the case for many citizens from throughout the world, including China and Taiwan. Consequently, traditional isolation of the Chinese has been significantly altered.
Modern economies: Like the Grand Canyon, the economies of both parties are vastly different from the time of the cultural revolution up to today. China boasts a powerhouse economy and Taiwan controls the vast majority of computer chips.
Recent history: The return of Hong Kong to China previewed what the present-day occupants of Taiwan might expect if an agreement for unification is agreed to by the Nationalists. Several missteps by the Chinese government will need to be addressed as the modern state that has been developed in Taiwan has been favorably embraced by the local citizens.
Generations: Millennials (1981-1996); Generation Z (1997-2012) and Generation Alpha (Early 2010-present) are tuned into personal phones and computers. Those generations are changing the norms for viewing how their governments and their societies should operate. Winning the thoughts and minds, especially these generations who live in Taiwan, will be critical to any progress on unification.
Threat of Nationalists attack to regain China: 0.005% chance that what's left of any hard-core Nationalist can organize an invasion of the mainland with the goal of reversing the 1949 result. However, China wants a 0.000% chance this could happen. Trust after all is a two-way street.
Military power: Two modern, powerful military nations can expect that a military solution will be devastating to both parties. Assuming that China is interested not just in property but also in people, military action would defeat those goals.
Partnership: A partnership by definition is voluntary. A partnership is an arrangement that is designed to change over time and that demands loyalty between the parties to be successful. An economic partnership is a relationship that would benefit both parties.
Arguably the most successful partnership in the world is the European Union in which sovereign countries have agreed to trade relationships that allow for fluid movement of people and business opportunities across borders. It created a co-op that creates laws that are followed by its members. If Europe where wars have been waged for centuries can create this economic powerhouse it is certainly doable in other parts of the world.
A Chinese business union could be pursued as a bridge to political unification in the future. If any country on the globe understands the concept of using time to benefit their interests, it is China. Even if it takes fifty years of a European union type partnership to build up closer ties and trust, that would be a blimp in time as compared to the history of China. Tangible benefits include new generations having the time to develop relationships on a social basis. Businesses would need to cooperate and grow together and become dependent on each other. Resources, intellectual talent and technology would flow back and forth creating jobs and growing both economies.
These outcomes are possible if the parties pursue mediation and are willing to take some calculated risks.
There are mediators, who aren't "diplomats", who could be employed to broker an agreement that would end the civil war and develop a win-win outcome. There are seasoned experts with European Union experience who could recommend structures that may be desirable to the unique positions the parties occupy that could lead to an agreement creating a temporary economic relationship ending the Civil War. In any event, if the parties try and fail, at least they are talking and can try, try again. The time has come for the parties to meet and pursue a negotiated end to their civil war. I recommend an arraignment that allows for a slow but sure resolution.
Epilogue: An excellent source of historic facts that explain details of the diplomatic history of China that are beyond the scope of this short paper can be read in On China, by Henry Kissinger, published by Penguin Group.
