Presumptive Democratic Presidential Contender Kamala Harris can make history. Or can she? If she wins her presidential bid, she makes history by becoming the first woman ever to bag the Oval Office. But there's a potential barrier. The sign on the Oval Office door throughout the entire history of the American presidency has been "Men Only."
Harris got off to a fast start with many women. Numerous women's groups have poured loads of cash, and pledged solid backing, along with a huge dose of enthusiasm for her historic campaign for the White House. But then there's that poll and that history of the presidency.
A Times/SAY24 poll from YouGov poll taken a week after Harris's hat was tossed in the presidential ring, showed that more Americans said they had reservations about a woman president. wouldn't. That was a sharp reversal from a decade earlier when then Democratic Presidential Contender Hillary Clinton tried to smash through the velvet gender ceiling and win the White House.
There were a couple of other things about the poll that slightly tingled a warning bell. One was that a small but noticeable number of Democrats also expressed doubts about a woman president. The other disturbing note was that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer who polled high in favorability quickly took herself out of any presidential consideration. That extended to any possible consideration as Harris's VP. The obvious reason for her decision was the deep feeling that an all-woman ticket simply will not fly.
The 2016 presidential election is not forgotten. Trump snagged tens of thousands of women voters in that election. That made the difference in his win against Clinton. While Democratic women voted loyally for Clinton, they voted for her because she was a Democrat. It was a case of party loyalty first. They would have voted for whomever the Democratic candidate had been.
Much is made that a woman, Clinton, in 2016 did beat Trump handily in the popular vote. But that is nothing more than a historical curiosity. Trump won with the support of thousands of women voters and that was a huge factor in him winning the Electoral College and the presidency.
Polls and surveys in his losing bid in 2020 showed that not much had changed. Many of the same women who backed Trump in 2016 did it again. They did it in part out of party loyalty, and in part out of the old notion still deeply ingrained in many women that the Oval Office is a man's office. The idea is still ingrained in many voters, and that includes many women voters, that the president must be tough, aggressive, and decisive, and that takes man.
True, hundreds of women have won seats in Congress, governorships and in legions of local elections over men. And yes, at that level it's the long needed and awaited sea change in how many women see women candidates in head-to-head challenges versus men candidates.
However, there are thousands of congressional and state offices but only one president. This is where the old thinking still rears up about the presidential office being a man's office. Various polls have found that a considerable number of men and women were lukewarm at best in answering the question whether they thought women were "respected" in politics. An equally substantial number flatly said that there would never be a woman president, and the most optimistic thought it would take many more years before that happened.
Trump exploited that sentiment to the hilt. He may be the biggest sexist, misogynist, female abuser that ever sat in the White House. But he's still seen by many as brash, tough, and outspoken. For many women, which seems to mark him as having the right stuff to be President. Harris still must find a way to crack that deeply engrained gender silliness.
Then there are the women who voted for Trump. A sizable percentage of those who backed him didn't fit the small town, small mind stereotype. They were college educated, middle class women who lived in the suburbs.
Harris is a tough, self-confidant presidential contender with big, thoughtful, plans for change. This should be enough to give her a legitimate shot to knock Trump out the box. Unfortunately, for the conservative women who backed Trump in two presidential elections it won't. The test is whether there are enough other women who aren't conservative or Democratic voters who see Harris and her program as one that they can back even though it comes from a woman.
No one really knows just how many women really want to see a woman be president but who might hold back from backing Harris precisely because they're scared stiff that a woman can't beat Trump. In large part to quiet that fear, Harris is absolutely compelled to pick a white, male, centrist VP running mate, preferably from a red or swing state. Put simply many voters, are much more comfortable with a so-called gender balanced ticket in the final showdown with Trump.
Harris is not running as a woman presidential candidate. She's running as a Democratic presidential candidate. Poll or no poll on a woman president, that's all she should have to run as.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book -- "President" Trump's America (Middle Passage Press). He also is the host of the weekly Hutchinson Report on KPFK 90.7 FM Los Angeles and the Pacifica Network. He publishes thehutchinsonreport.net
