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Breathe Easier: Blinken, Lavrov Meet Friday

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Ray McGovern
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Geneva Peace Talks
Geneva Peace Talks
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Whoa! Could this mean that reports of the death of U.S.-Russia security talks are greatly exaggerated? What about the impasse, the deadlock? Might it mean no Russian invasion of Ukraine - at least not yet?

Actually, figuring out what the planned bilateral talks Friday in Geneva mean requires no PhD in political science. Nevertheless, the notion is so alien to consumers of the corporate media that one can, I suppose, give the New York Times credit for admitting, matter-of-factly:

"[The fact] that Mr. Lavrov [Russia's foreign minister] will meet with [Secretary of State] Mr. Blinken on Friday indicates that Russia is prepared for at least one more round of diplomacy."

In the same obvious vein, the Washington Post quoted a "senior State Department official" (probably Blinken himself) explaining that the planned meeting on Friday shows that "diplomacy is not dead"We are prepared to continue to engage with Russia on security issues in a meaningful, reciprocal dialogue. We will see this Friday if Russia is prepared to do the same."

So, can we be somewhat hopeful that war can be avoided? Not so fast.

Persistent Paradigm

Don't get your hopes up. The editors at the Washington Post and elsewhere were careful to avoid suggesting that there is much possibility that peace might be given a chance - despite the miraculous resurrection of talks that were said to be dead and buried for a few days. Tuesday evening the Post headlined its web version of the story: "Blinken to meet Russian counterpart as White House warns Moscow could attack Ukraine 'at any point'. That awkwardly balanced headline was changed overnight to "Ukraine invasion seen as looming", and the new headline sat atop the same article, which ran as the page-one lead in the print edition Wednesday morning.

As Blinken departed Tuesday evening to confer with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday, and with his German counterpart and French and British diplomats Thursday, strident warnings came from Biden's spokeswoman Jen Psaki:

"President Putin has created this crisis by amassing 100,000 Russian troops along Ukraine's borders. This includes moving Russian forces into Belarus recently for joint exercises and conducting additional exercises on Ukraine's eastern border.

"So, let's be clear: Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation. We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine.

"And what Secretary Blinken is going to go do is highlight very clearly there is a diplomatic path forward. It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make whether they are going to suffer severe economic consequences or not."

Bad Cop, Good Cop

So with Jen Psaki and vigilant editors at the Washington Post and their corporate-media colleagues playing bad cop, Secretary of State Tony Blinken is freer to assume the role of good cop with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Friday in Geneva. And, as Blinken himself has emphasized in his more sober moments, the U.S. has put a major "quid" on the table. The key question appears to be whether it will be a significant enough quid to get substantive talks started and an eventual "quo" from Russia. This, I believe, will be a key subject of discussion this Friday in Geneva.

For background, readers can refer to earlier Antiwar.com articles, among them:

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Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. He was an Army infantry/intelligence officer and then a CIA analyst for 27 years, and is now on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS). His (more...)
 
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