The
German ambassador to Libya Oliver Owcza
announced on his Twitter in early September
that his country intends to hold a
meaningful international conference until
the end of this fall in Berlin to
resolve the Libyan crisis. "Germany therefore initiated a
consultation process with key international partners,"
the German diplomat said. However, as the time has shown, previous international meetings have not yielded the desired results and served as a tool for the concerned countries
to achieve their own interests. So the
question arises: is there any point in Berlin conference?
After
the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Germany seemed not to pay
close attention to the situation in the
North African country and has been seeking to maintain equal distance from
the conflicting parties. The UN special envoy to Libya, Ghassan
Salame, said
Germany appears neutral in comparison with France
and Italy, which are competing for influence and have their
own interests in gas
and oil production in Libya. Perhaps
this is the reason why many analysts
believe the Berlin conference is likely to succeed, in spite
of the fact that previous meetings in Paris, Palermo and Abu
Dhabi failed to break the political
deadlock. In addition, according
to German officials, Germany does not
intend to focus on elections, a thorny
issue for Libya, but gives top priority to the two practical
tasks. The first is to resume peaceful
dialogue and the second one is to force all parties
to abide by the UN arms embargo.
However, the Berlin
conference is also likely to stumble, primarily because it has not made any specific proposals in
order to reconsider the current status quo that
is stemming from the out-dated Libyan political agreement (LPA).
In this regard, a prominent example is the Libyan coastal city of Misurata, some 120 km east of Tripoli. It's believed that Misurata native GNA Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeq represents a guardian of his city's interests at the state level. Additionally, Fathi Bashaga, who is also from Misurata, was appointed interior minister last October in the unity government.
Moreover, according to the Skhirat agreement, GNA headed by Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj has been granted full control over the export of natural resources and preparation of the State budget. As a result, the Tripoli-based government abused its power and unequally distributed Libya's budget among the three regions of the country - more than 60% to Tripolitania and the rest to Cyrenaica and Fezzan.
Four years after the signing of the Skhirat Agreement, the balance of political forces in Libya has changed significantly. The southeast of Libya witnessed the rise of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army. As of now, Haftar is viewed as the most influential political figure in Libya as his forces remain in control of more than 80% of national territory.
In the changing environment, the Skhirat Agreement should have been reformed to bring the document into line with the reality of today's Libya. But it has not. Unsurprisingly, financial discrimination against Cyrenaica and Fezzan resulted in social resentment and resistance from local authorities, which in fact were disobeying Tripoli's government.
And it's not surprising this led the southeastern Libya forces under the command of Khalifa Haftar to launch the military operation in order to regain control of the capital Tripoli. The fact that the city has been long suffering under the armed militias' rule was also instrumental to launch this campaign.
The Libya Observer reported that the GNA set out a number of conditions that Germany would have to meet to secure the participation of Tripoli's delegation in the Berlin conference. Among these conditions were that Germany should renew commitment to the Libyan Political Agreement and halt all contacts with parallel authorities in the country's east. In this context, Sarraj's government seems not to intend to settle the long-lasting crisis in the country, seeking to continue its dominance over the two other regions. It is evident that this approach, which is still pursued by the GNA, not only make it pointless to convene the Berlin conference, but also pushes the Libyan National Army to continue the military campaign in Tripoli to try to restore justice to the majority of the Libyan people.