I refuted that claim based on polls, with a warning: the polls might change.
They laughed when I said Johnson was going to help Clinton win.
I was wrong. When Johnson blew himself up with "What's a LEPO?" he lost half his support, mot of which went to Trump...in the new polls, Clinton is up in a 2 way but behind in a 4 way. Johnson has helped Trump by repelling half his support.
Are you ready for President Trump?
Two of the most accurate (historically) polls show Trump winning, the IBD and the ABC polls. IBD was 99% accurate in 2012, and ABC is rated at 538 as A+. The LATimes also has trump ahead. The polls which have Clinton ahead have her up by 1 point, all but statistically tied. Rasmussen has a tie.
Now here is where I say: I told you so.
I said that Johnson helped Clinton and was a potential, if not likely spoiler, drawing off more votes from Trump than Clinton (libertarian historically support Republicans). The recent polls show that in a 2 way race, Clinton is slightly up, and in a 4 way (with johnson and Stein), Trump is up. I did not count on Johnson imploding, which eliminated the votes he had drawn from Trump: the deserted (half) have helped put Trump ahead in the historically most accurate polls.
Of course, Johnson and Stein are in the race, so the point of polling a 2 way is to determine the influence of the other candidates. Since Johnson dumbed out, his support has dropped from 8-12% to 4-5%. Millions of voters have deserted him, and I think most, based on history, would gravitate to Trump. Stein's effect is harder to gauge, but she has nearly as much support as Johnson, with about 4 times the support she had in 2012. 4% is 5 million voters, enough to swing the election, but there is no history to tell us where the new Stein voters are coming from. Is she taking votes from Clinton? Possible but unlikely. Is she taking votes from Trump? no way.
I have been calling the race done, Clinton winning, for weeks, based on the polls, but now I have to say that, due to the email episode, which was started by Trump ally Rupert Murdoch in the WSJ article which essentially compelled FBI director Comey to announce the FBI was looking to see if the emails on the Wiener computer had any relevance.
The media is either poo-poohing the new investigation to pretend it is not hurting Clinton. The Trump forces are claiming the FBI has stated the emails (which they have not yet discussed) are looking in to wrongdoing, but what Comey said is that they are looking to see IF there is any dirt there: is there any there there?
The mere presentation of the information that the FBI was looking into it to see if there was any there there has shifted a few million voters to Trump, which along with the Johnson gift, has him now, ahead in the two top-rated polls
Team Clinton is panicking and no doubt will have its own November surprise within days....tho it is unlikely to change anything since Trump's support has only grown after many revelations of his business failues, his use of slave labor, his attachment to Mein Kampf, his hiring of "illegal aliens," his deleting emails and records, his history of racism, and his unending lies and contradictions.......the irony of Trump, based on his totally fake image as an outsider, one of the ordinary people (when he was born into the establishment) is that the worse the case against him, the more support he has gathered. This is a result of his brilliant deflection in turning the media attacks on him into attacks on the media.
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