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OpEdNews Op Eds        11/6/2004

    Do Not Concede Your Vote: Another Stolen Election! Millions Disenfranchised and People ARE Doing Something About It.

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    Do Not Concede Your Vote: Another Stolen Election! Millions Disenfranchised and People ARE Doing Something About It.

by Kat L'Estrange Jonathan Simon


Concerned citizens are calling for a thorough investigation into the discrepancies identified in the election results between exit polling data provided by independent polling organizations and the data supplied to the national networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in the final electoral vote analysis, which awarded Bush the presidency on November 3, 2004. Sen. John Kerry conceded the election to Bush, but a growing number of concerned citizens believe the votes in this election are not his to concede. The votes belong to the legal voters who cast them, and existing discrepancies may point to possible wrongdoing by those who counted them. Organizations or individuals who support this public outcry are encouraged to get involved.

Exit polling on election day as reported by John Zogby of Zogby International and other independent exit polling organizations show a different result earlier on in the contest than what was reported later on by 6 national networks, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press, who received their exit polling data from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, a consortium formed after Voter News Service was disbanded and blamed for the networks' error in prematurely calling Florida for Gore in the 2000 election. Despite congressional and media scapegoating, exit polling using statistical analysis is an important part of our election process, providing necessary checks against the tabulated results, and a reasonable amount of protection against vote fraud.

According to the networks, Edison Media Research had a direct connection to county election results across the nation via computer modems. Although early polling data obtained by Edison/Mitofsky appear to be accurate, as the situation unfolded later into the night, the exit polls were combined with and therefore contaminated by the tabulated results, ultimately becoming a mirror of the apparent actual vote. Jonathan Simon of Alliance for Democracy notes, "Statistical discrepancies were identified in key battleground states that exceeded the margin of error of the exit polls. In Ohio, for instance, a shift of 3.1% toward Bush converted a 52% - 48% exit poll "victory" for Kerry into a 51% - 49% electoral "victory" for Bush.

Other critical states showed similar anomalous results, each of which should occur less than 5% of the time. In the group of 12 critical states selected for analysis, exit poll vs. tabulated vote shifts exceeded the polls' margin of error in 4 cases, which according to statistical analysis would occur only 0.2% (or one five-hundredth) of the time in the absence of significant mistabulation of votes." Simon also notes that exit polling appears inexplicably to have been significantly more accurate in nonbattleground states, than in the states that were crucial to a Bush victory.

Rather than objectively exploring reasons for these identified discrepancies, the networks now glibly claim exit polling based on scientific methodology is completely unreliable, and have all but forgotten that there was a deep and widespread concern about the reliability and security of the vote tabulating apparatus leading up to this election.

A statement by Wally O'Dell, the CEO of Diebold, providers of Ohio's electronic voting equipment in August 2003, may have foreshadowed the November 2 results, at least in Ohio. O'Dell, acting as a Republican fundraiser at the time wrote, "I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president." This statement fueled even greater concern among Americans about the trend toward use of electronic voting equipment without paper receipts, and central tabulation equipment owned, operated, and protected from scrutiny by partisan corporations. George Bush seemed to take O'Dell's pledge at face value, hardly deigning to campaign in Ohio, which was a confusing strategy to many pundits given the state's cliffhanger closeness and critical importance.

Additional anomalies have been recognized, such as a record voter turnout witnessed in Tuesday's election, a fact which typically promises a positive outcome for the Democratic Party, having had no such effect, again perplexing analysts across the political spectrum. Problems with continued voter disenfranchisement in this election through questionable "caging lists" and vote "spoilage" have been reported by BBC investigative journalist, Greg Palast, in Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. The nation is divided, but it is believed that Americans have been trending toward change in the White House since the 2000 election, not toward greater conservatism or support of George Bush's policies, and that exit polling by independent pollsters on November 2 reflected this change.

Americans concerned about voter fraud in Election 2004 are urged not to concede their vote to George Bush, and to prepare for further pro-active measures designed to empower millions of legal voters who continue to be disenfranchised by party politics. To join the WE DO NOT CONCEDE Coalition, send an email to the organizer, Kat L'Estrange, at signup@donotconcede.com with I DO NOT CONCEDE MY VOTE in the subject line and contact information in the body. Contact Jonathan Simon for questions regarding statistical data at VerifiedVote2004@aol.com.


Critical States (12)

Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Colorado 49.9 48.1 2515 12:24 AM 2.6%

Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21 2.5

(Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01 0.6 )

Michigan 46.5 51.5 2452 12:21 1.0

Minnesota 44.5 53.5 2178 12:23 3.0

Nebraska 62.5 36.0 785 12:22 4.3

(Nebraska "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history) Nevada 47.9 49.2 2116 12:23 2.2 New Hamp. 44.1 54.9 1849 12:24 4.9 New Mex. 47.5 50.1 1951 12:24 1.8

Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32 PM 3.1

(Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41 AM 0.3)

Penn 45.4 54.1 1930 12:21 3.4

Wisconsin 48.8 49.2 2223 12:21 (-)0.3

Iowa 48.4 49.7 2502 12:23 2.0

12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

Note that because of rolling updates, some states may have been relatively pure at c. 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been slightly corrupted. My guess is that most of these were still OK at these times.

Non-Critical States (35)

Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Alabama 58.1 40.5 730 12:17 AM 4.2

Alaska 57.8 38.8 910 01:00 AM 4.0 (keep in mind AK time zone, this is still


Arizona 52.8 46.7 1859 12:19 2.5

Arkansas 52.9 46.1 1402 12:22 1.1

Calif 46.6 54.6 1919 12:23 (-)1.5

CT 40.9 57.7 872 12:22 3.4

(CT 44.4 54.7 872 12:53) 0.2

DC 8.2 89.8 795 12:22 0.3

Delaware 40.7 57.3 770 12:22 4.8

Georgia 56.6 42.9 1536 12:22 2.2

Hawaii 46.7 53.3 499 12:22 (-)1.2

Idaho 65.7 32.9 559 12:22 2.6

Illinois 42.4 56.6 1392 12:23 1.6

Indiana 58.4 40.6 926 12:22 1.6

Kansas 64.5 34.1 654 12:22 (-)2.7

Kentucky 58.4 40.2 1034 12:22 0.9

Louisiana 54.7 43.9 1669 12:21 2.1

Maine 44.3 53.8 1968 12:22 0.8

Maryland 42.3 56.2 1000 12:22 0.5

Mass 32.9 65.2 889 12:22 3.7

Miss 56.5 43.0 798 12:22 3.3

Missouri 52.0 47.0 2158 12:21 1.5

Montana 58.0 37.5 640 12:22 (-)0.3

ND 64.4 32.6 649 12:22 (-)2.4

OK 65.0 34.6 1539 12:23 0.8

Oregon 47.9 50.3 1064 12:22 (-)1.3

RI 34.9 62.7 809 12:22 3.4

SC 53.4 45.1 1735 12:24 4.4

SD 61.0 36.5 1495 12:24 (-)1.8

Tenn 58.0 40.6 1774 12:23 (-)1.7

Texas 62.2 36.3 1671 12:22 (-)2.0

Utah 68.1 29.1 798 12:22 2.5

Vermont 33.3 63.7 685 12:22 5.2

Wash 44.0 54.1 2123 12:38 1.6

WV 54.0 44.5 1722 12:24 1.8

Wyoming 65.5 30.9 684 12:22 2.7

35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

The following state data was obtained too late and highly contaminated with actual tabulation results:

NJ 46.2 52.8 1520 12:50 (-)0.2

NY 40.9 58.2 1452 12:52 (-)0.4

NC 56.5 42.7 2167 12:48 (-)0.4

Virginia 54.1 45.4 1431 12:56 (-)0.4

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%. Why? -Jonathan Simon

WE DO NOT CONCEDE Coalition endorsed by:

Michael Rectenwald, Ph.D. - clg_news@legitgov.org Citizens For Legitimate Government - http://www.legitgov.org Mike Hersh - www.MikeHersh.com Media Watch Project - http://democrats.com/media MikeHersh.com - http://www.mikehersh.com BushOccupation.com - http://www.bushoccupation.com Oppose Bush Items: - http://www.cafeshops.com/antibush04

Lynn Pentz, Founder http://911TruthLA.us Mark R. Elsis, Executive Director, Lovearth Network, http://Lovearth.net, http://StolenElection.net Meria Heller, THE MERIA HELLER SHOW http:///www.Meria.net Nina Moliver, Moderator, NotMyPresident@yahoogroups.com http://www.TakeBackThePresidency.com

Kat L'Estrange has been an activist in the pro-democracy movement since 2000 when the US Supreme Court unconstitutionally delivered the White House to George W. Bush via the highly controversial 5-4 decision in Bush v. Gore.  She has worked with several online activist organizations and with BBC investigative journalist Greg Palast, as national book tour director.  She studied media communications at CSU Sacramento.  She is a veteran of the United States Armed Forces and ex-political party member.

Jonathan Simon of Alliance for Democracy presently works as a chiropractor in the Boston area.  He is a nonpracticing attorney and graduate of Harvard University .  He has served as a polling analyst for Peter D. Hart Research Associates.  Jonathan describes himself as "a clairvoyant when it comes to knowing what Karl Rove will do," and is the author of the temporarily unpublished mock epic poem Don Dubya: A Byronic Tribute.   He is also a state level and college soccer referee, and spends occasional moments of leisure time trying to forget that he is no longer a "serious" pianist.

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