The President, I believe, is in this position now. I believe that's why his father broke down in tears the other day. To see one son do a good job as a leader, and watch another son you have had doubts about, suddenly reach the pinnacle of success and blow it as he's blown almost every other opportunity that he has had the good fortune to have, was too much for the former President. I believe that he can see the handwriting on the wall. I believe that we all can. The question is what is this man prepared to do, now that his dream of establishing a pro-western government that shares a long border with Iran is gone? Which way is he going to go?
I don't believe that this President will take this opportunity to work with the Democrats by following this panel's recommendations. He may follow some of them, like threatening the Iraqi government with a possible pullout if they don't make any progress in training up their own police and army, but I doubt that in the next two years we will see any meaningful reduction in force. I believe that Bush didn't even know what happened in Vietnam, so therefore we are going to be doomed to making the exact same mistakes. Just as happened in Vietnam. There we had regime after regime take power in Saigon, as the United States put it's "spin" on the latest leader that took over the government with covert help from the US, we are going to see the same thing in Iraq, while American soldiers keep dying in a useless civil war.
Vietnam was basically a civil war. There the Vietnamese that were fighting in the south had help from North Vietnam, In Iraq it appears the Shia are getting help from Iran, while the Sunni are getting help from Syria. Why in God's name he is so reluctant to talk to these countries is beyond me. If they refuse to help while providing help for either faction, then he at least would quiet his critics by trying. If either country decided to cut the pipeline to these factions, then the situation in Iraq wouldn't be so hopeless. If both countries decided to work with us in trying to put and end to this sectarian violence than Bush could walk away from the deal looking better than he does now. Either way, it's a win-win strategy for him to talk to Syria and Iran.
The worst thing that Bush could do is to send more troops into Iraq and try to win this thing militarily by ourselves and whatever help we can get from the other countries that are in this. If we do that, we will be in for a long, protracted war that in the end we will lose. We will lose because the American people have no vested interest in supporting this war. This is something that Bush can't seem to come to grips with. If Iraq had sponsored the 9/11 terrorists, I have no doubt that the American people would be supporting this war, but they didn't. If we had walked into Iraq and found cache after cache of nuclear or biological warheads on missiles, or even evidence that they were very close to achieving the technology to do so, then I believe American would feel differently, but they didn't. Bush just doesn't understand that his opinions and ideas are not fact.
The recommendations of the Iraq study group are sobering. I believe that this is the final straw that broke this President's back. This is where his every move should be watched and evaluated. If he tries to make an end run around the study group's recommendations, then I believe that he should be stopped by Congress by pulling the funding for the war. I know that is a strong measure, but that course of action is the only way to prevent him from wasting more American lives in a colossal mistake that should never have been made in the first place.
I believe that the President's father was crying because he knows what is eventually going to happen. His son will be the first President ever impeached and imprisoned for high crimes and misdemeanors while in office. I don't believe that he will submit to the reality of the situation, I believe he is incapable. Just because somebody stops drinking doesn't mean they are better unless they confront the things and change the person that had to drink, that is usually done by going to AA or going to therapy, or both. If that doesn't happen, then the person is called a "dry drunk". I never believed it until now. When your ego is bigger than your intellect, there are going to be problems. That could be another reason George H.W, Bush was in tears, he loosed his dysfunctional son on the country without warning us.