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My Super Tuesday Prediction for the Democrats

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Steven Leser       (Page 1 of 1 pages)     Permalink

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First I analyzed every poll I could get my hands on, then I looked at the trends.  In some cases, I even got a final take from the Rasmussen Reports futures market. Below shows a prediction where Obama wins 13 states and Hillary wins 9. But I think Obama will win at least two of the states where I indicated the potential for an Obama upset is high, making it 15 states for Obama and 7 for Hillary.
Alabama            Clinton  by less than 5%  (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Alaska               Obama  by over 10%
Arizona              Obama  by over 10%
Arkansas           Clinton  by over 10%
California           Obama  by less than 5%
Colorado           Obama  by between 5% and 10%
Connecticut       Obama  by over 10%
Delaware           Obama  by between 5% and 10%
Georgia             Obama  by over 10%
Idaho                Obama  by over 10%
Illinois                Obama  by over 10%
Kansas              Obama  by over 10%
Massachusetts  Clinton  by less than 5%  (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Minnesota         Clinton  by less than 5%  (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Missouri           Obama  by less than 5%
New Jersey       Clinton  by between 5% and 10%
New Mexico      Clinton  by less than 5%  (Potential for Obama upset is high)
New York          Clinton  by over 10%
North Dakota     Obama  by over 10%
Oklahoma         Clinton  by over 10%
Tennessee        Clinton  by over 10%
Utah                 Obama  by over 10%
Many states still have a large number of undecided voters. They are the wildcard in all of this. If most of the undecideds in a given state break one way or the other, they can change the outcome in all but four of the Super Tuesday states. Typically, the undecideds break in one of a few ways. They either break in similar ways to the existing polling, or they break for the way that the race is trending, in the case of Super Tuesday, that would mean an even better night for Obama. But sometimes, undecideds break in a way that is completely unpredictable.
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A political blogger for the International Business Times, Steve Leser is a hot national political pundit. He has appeared on MSNBC's Coundown with Keith Olbermann, Comedy Central's Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Russia Today's (RT) Crosstalk with (more...)

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