My first comment about the NH primary is that the MSM blew it again. They overstated the Obama momentum and participated in making Hillary into a victim, something women naturally would find offensive. The majority of women in NH voted for Hillary because there was a strong gender sympathy. I heard women interviewed yesterday including many female journalists who rallied around Hillary even though they may not
even support her. The hyperbole of the pundits changed the dynamics of the NH primary. The polling was probably accurate until Sunday when the women gave Hillary a protest vote against the MSM. I applaud the NH voters for that.
As I am writing this piece, the MSNBC pundits including Russert, Williams, and Matthews are calling this primary one of the biggest upsets in political primary history. That analysis is probably the biggest exaggeration in primary history. Both Iowa and NH are populated by mostly white rural Americans representing the least typical voting population and a microscopic view of the electorate. The next question is whether the African American voters and especially the women will rally around Obama creating the same bounce for Obama in the more populated states as the women did for Hillary in NH.
I suspect that the polling in the other states will give us a better clue about this than they did in NH. Statistically, polling in larger states are not nearly as volatile and subject to short term swings caused by media hysteria. That will be the true test of where the Democrats stand. In the long run, it will be better for all of us. While Clinton has won the day, the jury is still out. And in the process, her victory gives Edwards a better chance to argue his important populist issues.
Sheldon Drobny was the co-founder of Nova M radio and Air America Radio. He has supported many philanthropic causes. Mr. Drobny specializes in business and tax matters and is admitted to practice before the U.S. Tax Court as a non-attorney. Less (more...