"Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign, unlike any other we have ever seen"Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists" George Bush
George Bush has no intention of obeying international law or following the United Nation's rules. After his Iran resolution fails in the Security Council, he'll resume his belligerence while trying to cobble together a coalition for sanctions. The media has already begun the disinformation campaign; stressing the "serious concerns" of the international community about Iran's nuclear programs.
It is 100% bunkum.
The "international community" has never cared a whit about Iran or its fictitious weapons programs. The driving force behind the hostilities is Washington. Even Bush's allies on the Security Council (Germany, France and England) know the whole thing is a sham intended to elicit public support for a war.
Do they think we were born yesterday?
No one knows why the Europeans have allowed themselves to be manipulated by Bush. Whatever the reason may be, they've cast their lot with the damned. They may think they're avoiding a conflict by placating Bush, but their brinksmanship has brought the Middle East one step closer to a regional holocaust.
The Bush resolution is a complete joke and an insult to the notion that every country deserves to be treated equally under the law. It requires Iran to "suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development" and it demands that Iran accept an "Additional Protocol and transparency measures" which make the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) meaningless.
Washington has rewritten the treaty completely and expects Iran to submissively sign on the dotted line.
Iran has not been found to be in violation of its treaty rights or in "noncompliance". They've undergone the most extensive 3 year inspection-regime in the history of the IAEA.
The real reason Iran has been unfairly singled out is because they've committed the inexcusable crime of controlling their own resources. This makes them a potential threat to Israel's ever-expanding territorial ambitions and America's insatiable thirst for oil. The nuclear issue is a red herring with no merit whatsoever.
The resolution is going nowhere. The world is already sick of Bush's war-mongering and neither Russia nor China will endorse this new provocation. It has no chance of passing the Security Council even though the wording was intentionally toned-down and contains neither threats nor sanctions.
The White House, of course, anticipated opposition at the UN. Now, they can begin their campaign to discredit the Security Council deriding it as "irrelevant" while preparing for a unilateral attack. The media will invoke the same stale slanders they used before the war on Iraq maximizing the fear of a nuclear-armed Iran.
Already in Iran?
There've been numerous reports ( Sy Hersh, Scott Ritter and Col. Sam Gardiner) that US forces are already inside Iran executing covert operations and locating sites for future US bombing raids. If this is true, we can assume that the logistical groundwork of moving troops and supplies to the region is already underway making war inevitable.
But Iran is not Iraq. Bush is making a colossal miscalculation that could dramatically reshape the global power-structure. That's why core members of the American ruling-elite, like Brzezinski, Albright, Odom and Holbrook, have all spoken out against any plan of attack. These are not limp-wristed liberals who hesitate to use military force if America's interests are at stake. These are hard-edged Machiavellians skilled in the bare-knuckle methods of maintaining the empire. Brzezinski is so alarmed that he's composed more articles lately than Tom Friedman. In a recent article he stated:
"An attack on Iran would be an act of political folly, setting in motion a progressive upheaval in world affairs. With the U.S. increasingly the object of widespread hostility, the era of American preponderance could even come to a premature end." Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Been There, Done That,"
Bush's blinkered strategy for Iran portends tragedy and, potentially, a global realignment of states opposed to America.
Not One Drop
A great deal has been written about what may happen if Bush goes ahead with his war on Iran. How will Iran respond? Will they retaliate? Will they fire their Russian-made missiles at America's fleet in the Mediterranean? Will they bomb the Green Zone or launch their Shahab missiles at Tel Aviv? Will this result in a quick escalation triggering nuclear retaliation by the United States?
I don't believe that the war with Iran will unfold as the prognosticators have predicted.
America has long been Iran's primary nemesis. Ever since the CIA toppled the democratically-elected Mossadegh and replaced him with brutal Shah; Iran's antipathy for the "Great Satan" has been justifiably strong. The Mullahs war plan will emerge from the "cauldron of animosities" that has been brewing for over 30 years. People in the Middle East have long memories; 25 years of oppression beneath the boot-heel of an American stooge is not easily forgotten. The US trained the notorious Savak, the Shah's despised security apparatus. They also protected the murderous Peacock Regent from extradition when he was finally toppled during the revolution. The Iranian people have suffered greatly at the hands of western imperialists who only show up periodically to pilfer their resources. Iran's battle-plans will undoubtedly reflect their resolve to finally prevail over their lifetime enemy.
Am I wrong?
Americans foolishly believe they have nothing to fear from Iran. They are mistaken. Iran will turn the war into a generation-long crusade that will transform the global-dynamic leaving the US without allies and without the ability secure the energy it needs to keep its economy running.
Iran's strategy will focus on one basic principle: Not one drop. "Not one drop" means that Iran will plan to disrupt or destroy American oil installations, pipelines, platforms and shipping wherever and whenever it can; a global resource war directed at US interests.
This strategy has already materialized in Iraq, Nigeria and (soon) Sudan. In fact, this seems to be the war that Bush and Cheney wanted since they are its original architects.
It would be foolish for Iran to fight America on its own terms. Modern warfare is guerilla warfare writ large. Firing missiles at American soldiers in Iraq accomplishes nothing; taking out Saudi Arabia's main oil-distribution platform changes the world energy-paradigm overnight.
The world oil market is already as jittery as anyone can remember. Every time a Kalashnikov-wielding dissident in Nigeria takes out a pipeline, oil futures shoot through the roof.
Imagine pipelines and refineries lighting up the night sky across the planet on a daily basis; sending oil skyrocketing to $350 per barrel and grinding the world economy to a standstill?
Not one drop!
Bush and Cheney unwisely believe that an attack on Iran will be a straightforward affair that will surgically remove weapons sites, radar installations, communications facilities, armories, missile silos, and parts of the civilian infrastructure.
In other words, another "cakewalk".
Iran will mobilize according to traditional military doctrine by attempting to "destroy the enemy's ability to wage war"; severing America's oil life-line wherever it may be. As soon as Bush launches aircraft over Tehran, government officials will convene in foreign Capitals across the world forming new alliances that will be the death-knell for the United Nations.
Russia, China, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Iran will form a new block of rising stars that will align against Washington and its allies.
When the first bomb drops, oil-laden ships from Venezuela will change course and head back to port. Chavez will act preemptively realizing that he is next on Washington's hit-list.
There will be a steep and sudden sell-off of the American greenback sending the dollar plummeting and markets gyrating wildly.
And, of course, the Straits of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's oil flows every day, will be shut down.
With oil depots smoldering in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Iraq and Iran, the Washington warlords and their clients in Israel may or may not rethink the wisdom of their adventure. After all, Bush might welcome the hellfire as fulfillment of his Biblical mission.
One thing is certain, however, America will not win an asymmetrical war with Iran, and it could very well be the biggest loser.
This war can be avoided. It is not too late to pull back from the brink.