The latest poll on impeachment comissioned from Zogby by OpEdNews is quite a disappointment. The numbers are so low as to be, to my mind, not credible. But we paid for it, they did it, and there's no undoing it.
If every polling company were out there polling the issue, there would be a few polls wildly low or high, but it would be possible to take the median outcome somewhat seriously. As it is, all we have to go by is the very small number of polls done over the past few years and collected at http://afterdowningstreet.org/polling
You'll notice in the history of impeachment polling collected at that site that Zogby has done a few impeachment related polls before. There was also a long period during which Zogby refused to poll on impeachment even for money.
You'll also notice that support for impeachment has always tended to be higher whenever a bit of context has been added, such as by asking "Would you support impeachment if..." and then naming some crime that Bush and Cheney have indisputably committed. OpEdNews has considered commissioning a poll with several questions in order to provide greater context, with the final question asking simply about support for impeachment hearings. That might be the way to go, given the blackout in the media, assuming a level of honesty and skill in the polling.
Zogby found much lower support for impeachment than have a number of polls in the past (see http://afterdowningstreet.org/polling ) and at a time when Bush and Cheney's approval ratings have reached record historic lows.
"Do you support or oppose the efforts of the members of the house judiciary committee to begin impeachment hearings to investigate vice president Dick Cheney?" That was the question asked. Zogby found 55% opposed and 34% in favor. In part this result came from Zogby including a large pecentage of Independents in the poll, and those Independents being unusually opposed to impeachment. Among Democrats 60 percent were in favor, among Republicans 12. The marins of error for these subcategories are of course something significantly higher than the ± 3 percentage points for the overall results.
Rays of hope can be found - again, assuming there's anything accurate here - in various other demographic categories. See the attached tables below. [Rob will add them]
Rob kall here:
While the total poll had 3% margin of error, specific demographic stats have a higher margin of error. I'm not sure I agree with David about there being too many independents in the poll, as the percentage seems about right to me based onthe past polls that have been done, give or take a few points.
here's a summary.
Keep in mind that OpEdNews ran another zogby poll, in the state of PA in May 2006, asking almost the identical question, and that poll
For Against impeachment
total poll 34 55
progressives 68 30
liberals 55 33
moderates 33 53
under 30, 44 41
Jews 63 30
Protestants(over 50% ofpoll)28 61
Catholics 32 56
other religion (20% of polled)47 43
Dems, 60 31
Republicans 12 79
Independents 26 59
Blacks 47 42
Hispanics 43 46
whites 31 59
Single 47 38
Married 30 61
$25-35K income 44 36
under $25K 42 43
Less than High school ed. 40 37
Male 33 61
female 35 50
I (Rob Kall) shared the new poll and the 2006 PA poll results with Cheryl Biren Wright. She observed:
Looking at the groups that weighed in higher than the 33.9% that support impeachment, we've got:
Union members at 40.9% (50% in '06). Certainly, union support is important to the Democrats. Currently, I know of 3 union groups that have endorsed impeachment: