I thought "Shallow Throat" would be positively giddy, given how the Administration's disastrous war policies and ongoing scandals are painting CheneyBush into a tighter and tighter political corner. But the high-ranking GOP mole inside the corridors of federal power looked anything but exultant as we walked at fast pace around the track at a local Virginia park. "What's going on?" I asked ST, who was wearing a new wig and large dark shades. "Gonzales' days are waning at DOJ, the number two guy at Interior is heading for the clink, the public overwhelmingly has turned against the war in Iraq, Libby was convicted for the lies he told about the outing of CIA agent Valerie Plame, the Abramoff corruption story continues giving, etc. etc. Am I missing something here? Where's the negative in all this?" Per usual, Shallow Throat looked at me like I was a dummy. "Sure, the Bush bunker crew are cornered and hassled and in potential legal trouble. But you 'progressives' don't see what's really going on. The Bush cabal still, and for nearly two years more will, control the Defense and Justice Departments and much of the court structure, including the Supreme Court. The damage they can do is humongous. "But they're wild-eyed in their rush to escape possible criminal indictments or impeachment. The Bush approval numbers are so low, everything looks up to them. They're in so much trouble, they feel they have nothing to lose. Cornered, wounded animals are always at their most dangerous, since threatening and attacking is about all they have left to save themselves. And that's what they're doing now." ROVE: THE ATTACK MEISTER "But they're on the defensive," I countered. "They are increasingly dysfunctional in the White House these days." "That's what I mean," Shallow Throat roared. "After six years, you still forget that Karl Rove always attacks when they're most vulnerable, usually aimed at the perceived strengths of his opponents. "I'll get to how this translates to Iraq and Iran in a moment. But for now, let's just talk about the U.S. Attorneys scandal. "So follow this out. The Democrats have been gaining political traction by pointing out the election fraud that took place in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006: easily manipulated computer-voting machines, inflated tallies, ballots gone missing, GOP-friendly corporations counting the votes, hundreds of thousands of minority voters stricken from the rolls, key states' returns altered, etc. etc. So Rove is seeming to grab the same issue. That's partially what the U.S. Attorneys scandal is all about: claiming that these U.S. Attorneys were forced out because they weren't moving on 'vote fraud' charges. They--" "Hang on," I interrupted. "I'm confused here. How does the Administration's 'vote fraud' issue differ from the Democrats' 'election fraud' issue?" THE KEY IS THE 2008 ELECTION "Don't go for the spin moves, Bernie, stay focused on the ball," said Shallow Throat. "The term 'vote fraud,' which would seem to be aimed at alleged electoral hanky-panky, for Rove&Co. really refers to creating electoral conditions that favor Republicans and diminish Democrat turnout. GOP operatives claim that huge hordes of ineligible individuals (mainly poor and minorities) cheat in order to vote, and their aim is to make it harder for those groups, who tend to vote Democratic, to cast their ballots. Rove wants U.S. attorneys to start bringing cases against Democrat voter-registration and get-out-the-vote campaigns, so that by November 2008, the GOP will have a leg up in key states and districts. "And, per usual when you're dealing with Rove-initiated dirty tricks, it doesn't matter that there is little or no truth to the 'vote-fraud' charges. You indict somebody, you make it sound like the Democrats are engaged in massive illegal actions, you pound that big-lie technique for months leading up to the election -- and, voila!, the Dems are tied up in court cases and many voters who might otherwise vote Democrat start backing away from them and/or Democrat leaders have to divert their funds and energies away from their usual campaigns. "Take a good look at which U.S. Attorneys were fired. In the main, they come from key, toss-up states for the 2008 election." "Let me get this straight," I averred. "You're saying that for two years at least, the Bush Administration, realizing their potential electoral and criminal vulnerabilities, have been working on ways to protect themselves in the legal system and that the firing of the U.S. Attorneys and replacing them with 'loyal Bushies' (to use the term in an email to Rove) was a key part of the strategy?" WAKE UP AND SMELL THE ROT "You finally got it. Wake up and smell the rot, my friend. They've packed the appelate courts, and the Supreme Court, with their own ideologically-friendly judges. And, by removing U.S. Attorneys who won't question the Bush party line they accomplish at least two things: 1. provide a clear warning to other U.S. Attorneys they've left in place to bedevil the Democrats and lay off Republican miscreants or go look elsewhere for employment, and 2. put their brand of U.S. Attorneys in position in key states that could well determine the 2008 winner, thus affecting Democrat turnout and the issue of potential presidential pardons. "The way you tell it," I responded, "you make the whole thing sound so sordid and partisan. Isn't it possible that the conspiracy tale you're weaving is way overdrawn? And, by the way, you promised you'd talk about Iraq along the way here." "Will do. But the point here is that you don't know these guys the way I do," Shallow Throat said. "I work with them every day and can confirm that they care about nothing but hanging on to their own power, and how they can use it for their own personal, financial or ideological ends. "Look at how they totally FUBARed Iraq, using it as a corporate money-drain, putting inexperienced and incompetent political hacks into positions of great power in the Occupation regime. Look at how, in violation of the Hatch Act, they used the General Services Administration to aid Republican Party candidates. Look at how, so that they wouldn't have to turn over White House phone and email records to the investigating Democrat committees, they've been using the Republican National Committee email address and their personal Blackberries. "In short, the situation is actually much worse than appears on the surface. We're talking about a de facto criminal enterprise here, a political mob approach to governance. And nothing will change at the top until we get Cheney and Bush and Rove and the rest of the White House bunker crew out of there and, one can hope, into prison suits so that the next administration, Republican or Democrat, will never try anything like that again." PURGING TO DISASTER IN WASHINGTON, D.C. "So, the obvious question," I said: "Is Gonzales political road kill? Is he out of there?" "They are resisting pushing him out with all their might," said Shallow Throat. "He's the ultimate insider, and knows where all the bodies are buried, so to speak. They're trying to protect him -- and thus themselves -- by tossing his subordinates overboard as sacrificial lambs, whoever it takes to stanch the hemorraging. "But, if the purging scandal of the U.S. Attorneys gets really desperate, Gonzo will go, keep his mouth shut, take the rap, get sentenced, and get pardoned." "SURGING" TO DISASTER IN IRAQ & IRAN "Can we finally get to the Middle East now? You suggested earlier that the CheneyBush Administration was flailing about dangerously in international adventures there that are tied in to their political survival strategy as well. Can you say more about that?" "Surely you see what's going on. Internationally, the Administration escalates the war in Iraq, and is preparing to attack Iran. All this while the Democrats pass timid resolutions about bringing the troops home, with no real teeth to them, the effect of which is to keep those soldiers there another year or more. The Dems win symbolic victories, but the war expands in Iraq and is about to expand all over the Middle East with imminent U.S./Israel moves on Iran." "But the Dems have passed bills that could cut off funds for the Iraq war," I said. "That action has teeth to it. What about that?" "We shall see what bill finally emerges from the Senate and House conference. My guess is that a lot of those teeth will go missing in the process, as the Dems don't want to be blamed for 'not supporting the troops' sent to Iraq for the 'surge'. And, after removing mention of Iran from their funding bill, they have yet to address the pending Iran attack at all." PIN THE TAIL ON THE DONKEYS "The saddest aspect of that 'surge' policy in Iraq," Shallow Throat continued, "is that those in the inner White House circle are fully aware that it probably won't work. But the underlying motivation is to postpone the inevitable until after the November 2008 election. If there's going to be a defeat, it will not be on this administration's watch. If the Democrats win in 2008, let them clean up our mess and take the blame for the defeat -- that's the general idea. "Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld placed all their chips on Iraq, conquering and then supposedly converting that pivot-country to a demonstration-model for the rest of the oil-rich Middle East. They've got huge personal and political investments in their plan not failing, so they continue dreaming and fantasizing that they can stay there for a good number of years and emerge with something they can call a 'victory.' But, deep down, they realize they've messed it up real bad. So now it's blame time: pin the defeat-tail on the donkeys (the Democrats), Iraqis, the Iranians, anybody but themselves. "The problem is, of course, that the American people have awakened from their political slumber, as they demonstrated in the election of November 2006, and have awarded responsibility for the Iraq disaster right where it belongs: on the CheneyBush Administration and their GOP lackeys in the Congress." THE CRAZINESS OF ATTACKING IRAN "And what about attacking Iran?," I asked. "Surely the Administration is not that lunatic." "Well, you and I thought much the same before Bush launched 'shock&awe' in 2003, didn't we? The U.S. and Israel and Brits are trying to provoke the Iranians into some sort of inflammatory military action, so that they can respond with overwhelming firepower. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the Brits deliberately sent their sailors into Iranian waters in order to create an eventual causus belli. The Iranians, horribile dictu, seem to have taken the bait and are behaving as if they're hell-bent on provoking the U.S., E.U., U.N., Brits, Israelis, everyone into taking extreme sanction action against them, and likely military action as well. The U.S. response would probably be an intense bombing campaign to set back Iran's fledgling nuclear research and conventional arms-building programs for at least a decade or more. Some Russian military sources have even supplied a date for the coming attack: around April 6th. "Giant games of chicken are being played out here. The U.S. is guessing that the Iranians will back off to avoid having their country's military/industrial infrastructure destroyed. The Iranians are betting that the U.S., its military stretched so thin in Afghanistan and Iraq and elsewhere around the globe, won't dare attack it or, if those bombing raids come, won't be supported by America's usual allies. "Either way, if the U.S. attacks, Iran becomes a popular martyr in the Greater Middle East, the one nation that stood up to the big American bully and its one ally in the region, Israel. And there may be immense ramifications inside Iraq as well: the majority Shia population could well rise up en masse against the American occupiers to help defend Shia Iran. "Yes, you would think that not even the CheneyBush Administration would be crazy enough to launch yet another war, when Afghanistan is re-exploding and Iraq is an ongoing disaster. But Bush probably would go for it, hoping that the American public would rally behind the 'commander-in-chief' during 'wartime,' giving him enough political wiggle room to avoid the impeachment noose dangling over his head. "It's going to be an extremely tense and interesting next few months. I'll see you down the line and let you know what it feels like from the inside of this Administration. Right now, it's just scary." And with that, Shallow Throat jogged around the track and out the exit on the other side. I had to sit down, my knees were wobbling so much. # Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, who has had numerous conversations with "Shallow Throat" ( www.crisispapers.org/weinerpubs.htm#shallow) over the past five years, has taught at various universities, worked as a writer/editor with the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently co-edits The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org). To comment: firstname.lastname@example.org . First published by The Crisis Papers 4/2/07. www.crisispapers.org/essays7w/chicken.htm Copyright 2007 by Bernard Weiner.