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The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct Level Exit Poll Data Show Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

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Media Release: January 16, 2005 by the National Election Data Archive

The Gun is Smoking - 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually
Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/1/prweb333209.php

There is significant controversy about whether the 2004 presidential
election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly.
According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted for
the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won Ohio's
pivotal vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus the
presidency, to Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally debated by
Congress in January 2005.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to
release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio
presidential exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level
Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount"
available at
http://electionarchive.org/ucvanalysis/oh/ohio-exit-polls-2004.pdf.
NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering vote
miscount.

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The analysis is based on the most accurate statistical method yet devised
for determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or vote count
manipulation cause the discrepancies between exit polls and official vote
tallies. This analysis method was made public recently by NEDA in "Vote
Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit
Poll Discrepancy" available at
http://electionarchive.org/ucvanalysis/us/exit-poll-analysis.pdf

Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohio's 11,360 precincts. At least 40% of
Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant differences between
Kerry's exit poll percent and official vote count percent. 35% of these
exit polls overestimated the Kerry official vote share. This is five times
the number expected. Three of the most glaring examples are:

1. In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's
official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating a 58%
difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There
is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this occurring due to chance.

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2. In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents, Kerry's
official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating a 56%
difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There
is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.

3. In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's
official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32%
difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins.
There is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.

There are also two precincts where the Bush official vote count is
significantly less than the Bush exit poll share. The number of significant
discrepancies and the pattern of Ohio's discrepancy shown in the NEDA report
provide strong support for the conclusion that vote count errors converted a
Kerry win to a Bush win.

New electronic voting equipment without voter verified paper ballots,
implemented under the 2002 Help America Vote Act, makes it easier for a
small number of people to manipulate vote counts and nearly impossible to
independently audit vote count accuracy. Virtually every county in America
today publicly reports its vote counts in a way that hides evidence of
miscounts. This allows those with access (whether authorized or not) to
manipulate or make mistakes in vote counting with negligible possibility of
detection.

Without accurate elections, America is not a democracy. NEDA urges the
media to publicize the results of this report and its recommendations, in
order to return to the American people their right to determine the
country's leaders.

The National Election Data Archive is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization
whose mission is to scientifically investigate the accuracy of elections
through the creation and analysis of a database containing precinct-level
vote-type election data for the entire United States. By making detailed
election data publicly available NEDA furthers its goal of providing the
means for independent analysts to evaluate the accuracy of vote counts in
time to ensure that properly elected candidates are sworn into office
following future elections.

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For further information contact:
Kathy Dopp, MS Mathematics, NEDA, President kathy@uscountvotes.org
435-658-4657 or
Ron Baiman, PhD, Economics, NEDA, Vice President, ron@uscountvotes.org

National Election Data Archive (NEDA)
http://electionarchive.org
--------------------------------

To receive our email announcements, please email
election-subscribe@uscountvotes.org

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