The big story concerning the last presidential debate is, according to the mainstream media, the fact that Trump said that he might not accept the results of the presidential election on 9th November. This was supposed to be an unprecedented scandal.
But Trump would have to be a fool to vow to accept the
reported results unconditionally. That would open the floodgates all manner of
rigging that Hillary and her allies are capable of - with Trump pledged to
ignore them. As Trump said in the debate there are millions registered to vote
illegally and these are certainly going to be new entrants to the US who will
fear a Trump immigration policy.
Earlier Hillary said all residents in the US, illegal or not, should be able to
vote. This has not happened but it speaks to her methods
It is a matter of record that Al Gore was cheated out of the presidency by George W. Bush in 2000 by irregular maneuvering of the count. (And how different the world would be if Bush had not been elected.)
The indignant posture of the pundits shows how little the real world impacts on the media bubble they inhabit.
That "big story" is not a story at all but just another ploy designed to discredit Trump. But the American people are not fools. They understand exactly why Trump made that statement.
So why do I say Trump might still win?
To understand this fully you have to stand back and compare the two candidates as personalities with their own record and histories. If, as I have, you have watched the presidential debates they emerge as complete opposites personalities. I will discuss policies just briefly at the end of this piece.
But let's start with the polls which are showing Hillary a long way ahead and apparently pulling away. I predicted that the Conservatives would win the 2015 UK elections, five weeks before the event, when according to Nick Robinson, BBC, the day after the election,
"No pollsters, no pundits, no political leaders saw it coming. Even David Cameron, himself did not see it coming. This was a day no one expected. No one could take it in."
One of the reasons for all the commentators getting it wrong is that, despite a long history of polls being wrong, commentators still believe them. They ignore one simple fact. People don't tell the truth when they respond to pollsters' questions. They reserve their true opinion for the ballot box.
This is very much the case when one of the contestants presents what is in many ways an unacceptable profile. In 2015 people did not like to say they would vote for the Conservatives because of poor image of being on the side of the rich and the cabinet being made up of Old Etonians as well a few other PR problems.
It was the same with the Brexit vote, where Brexiteers had been presented as "fascists", "racists", "xenophobes", "ignorant", and so on by the mainstream media. These slurs prevent people answering honestly outside the ballot box.
So it is with Trump. He has been so vilified by the media that people cannot face justifying their true opinion to a pollster and so take the easy way out -- as is their right.
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