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OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 3/21/20

What Lies Ahead: the problem is not the Corona-virus

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Coronavirus - This is not the problem
Coronavirus - This is not the problem
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Left out of this most articles and pundit analysis is the fact that the Fed has been pumping 100s of billions into the Repo market for bank reserves since September. The markets and economy in general were a lot weaker than the goosed-up stock market made it appear. The Fed and Treasury Secretary know this, even if Trump does not, and that is why there will be unprecedented money-pumping in 4-letter Fed programs and Congressional stimulus bills.

The problem is not the virus. The virus, at worst, will kill a million mostly unproductive elderly and immuno-compromised adults (children are mysteriously under-effected). From a cold economic view, that would actually benefit the economy. (There are many good reasons to believe the result will not be nearly that bad, from China's and South Korea's experience, to the demographics and recent semi-cures, to the warming weather, but that is beyond the scope of this article).

The problem is the across-the-board shuttering of the economy. The economy can't take more than a couple of months off before we slip into a depression, not just a recession. Only, unlike the deflationary Great Depression, this depression will be inflationary, with too much government supplied money chasing too few goods and services in an artificially supply constrained economy.

It will get even worse. People will not just sit back and allow themselves to go hungry and homeless. You're gong to see the Mother of All Black Markets, something that would make Ayn Rand blush in the later chapters of Atlas Shrugged.
The depression will kill more people and ruin more lives than the virus ever could, even if we did nothing.
If it goes on long enough, America is finished permanently. China is already making inroads into countries, recovering from its own early CV episode, and providing a lifeline while America fumbles and missteps everything. China actually makes stuff, e.g. they ramped up N95 mask production from 20m/day to 100m/day in just days.

America over-reacts in hysteria, then under-reacts in actual production and industrial response. I don't know if there is even institutional knowledge anymore on how to do anything more than rent-seek. We've lost core competence in almost everything.

 

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Scott Baker Social Media Pages: Facebook Page       Twitter Page       Linked In Page       Instagram Page

Scott Baker is a Managing Editor & The Economics Editor at Opednews, and a blogger for Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and Global Economic Intersection.

His anthology of updated Opednews articles "America is Not Broke" was published by Tayen Lane Publishing (March, 2015) and may be found here:
http://www.americaisnotbroke.net/

Scott is a former President of Common Ground-NYC (http://commongroundnyc.org/), a Geoist/Georgist activist group. He has written dozens of articles for (more...)
 

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6 people are discussing this page, with 7 comments  Post Comment


Chuck Nafziger

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The virus will kill more oldies in the US than elsewhere because the American GMO corn diet makes people chronically sick and our capitalist government is a parasite even worse than the virus. The isolation protocols are much stricter here than they were in the Asian countries that are now getting over the first wave. The fear mongering of the mainstream media has Americans terrified of their own shadows and cheering fascist regimentation.

In other words, Americans are very sick and stupid and the virus is being used to squeeze more money and freedom from them.

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 21, 2020 at 4:20:14 PM

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lila york

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We are on our own, that is for certain. Best we can do is band together and help each other through this. Occupy was a noble model for us. if we are mature enough to use it.

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 21, 2020 at 5:00:22 PM

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911TRUTH

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If they leave the 99% to wither and die on the vine, the 99% with 350 million guns, the movie Mad Max will seem like Mary Poppins in comparison to what this country will turn into.

They better think long and hard about what they do next.

People are fighting over toilet paper now, wait until they're fighting over food and water.

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 21, 2020 at 5:23:30 PM

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Dennis Kaiser

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That's why they are taking this lock-down time to prepare. It could get ugly fast.

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 21, 2020 at 11:52:01 PM

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Dennis Kaiser

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"We've lost core competence in almost everything."

We didn't lose almost everything, we gave it away in the name of Greed and unregulated Capitalism.

For decades we have been threatened by a disease that has engulfed us and there is no foreseeable cure as Capitalism is bringing down the entire Globe's economies. This present worldwide lock-down is giving a pause in which governments can prepare for a severe economic downturn, even a depression.

This Covid-19 is simply a good distraction for what is taking place. It is currently killing people at a rate of 1.4% of those in the United States who have been diagnosed with it while data shows 20% of those diagnosed with pneumonia in the United States died. Pneumonia has the same basic symptoms as the Covid-19 virus. These numbers will change

Submitted on Saturday, Mar 21, 2020 at 11:47:01 PM

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David Watts

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Medical Marshal Law is headed our way. I submitted an article about Medical Marshal Law and it is sitting in the queue right now. You will understand when you see the article. You will have a very clear understanding about what the hell is really going on. Hope they post it soon.

Submitted on Sunday, Mar 22, 2020 at 5:04:23 AM

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Private Citizen

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Truth unites. Trump divides. God is great. Endless errorism ain't. Hire the humble. Fire Trump.

Submitted on Sunday, Mar 22, 2020 at 3:18:13 PM

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