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Today's Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin polls show Pennsylvania closest with 53-44 Biden. On these pages I have predicted the Biden win will be somewhere between definitively and a landslide.
I have not seen any newscasters comment about what the electoral map would look like if Biden took every state that has come to be in play, including Texas. But some quick calculations show that the win would look like this:
Trump wins 18 states, almost all western or southern, for a total of 111 electoral votes. The NPR poll
says Biden will likely win 17 states plus D.C., including the solid west and northeast coasts, for a total of 213 electoral votes.
That leaves the states which have been said to be in play, and they number 13: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Missouri and Minnesota, with electoral votes totaling 205.
Hence, 529 electoral votes are available on a winner-take-all basis-- 48 states plus the District. Presuming both candidates held their very-likely states, if Joe Biden were to win all the states I listed, he would get 418 electoral votes to Trump's 111, which would certainly qualify as a political landslide, and would certainly drive away any of Trump's army of lawyers who were/are in place to contest the election.
The election has devolved to a referendum on Trump's handling, or mishandling, of the novel coronavirus. Under normal, pre-Covid-19 political circumstances, Trump would be much stronger, hammering on "It's the economy, stupid!"
But for a supermajority of Americans, the argument that goes, "if Trump won't even take care of himself, how in the world can he be trusted to lead and take care of the People?" resonates, whether or not they think about it in those specific terms.
I predicted in the beginning of the midterm year 2018 that the GOP was going to run out of time to run away from Trump's record. Now most of them have hitched their wagon to Trump's ignorant and erratic behavior for almost four years, so that it is THEIR record.
I thought it would happen in 2018, but only the House caught the Blue Wave. Now, in 2020, that wave is likely to flip the Senate.
Only the GOP's Senators' disgraceful ramming through the Amy Coney Barrett nomination darkens the day. Perhaps, we may hope, Barrett will preserve the dignity of the USSC by recusing herself from any decisions about the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
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