Reprinted from Dispatches From The Edge
As the dust begins to settle from the failed Turkish coup, there appears to be some winners and losers, although predicting things in the Middle East these days is a tricky business. What is clear is that several alignments have shifted, shifts that may have an impact on the two regional running sores: the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The most obvious winner to emerge from the abortive military putsch is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogen and his campaign to transform Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to a powerful, centralized executive with himself in charge. The most obvious losers are Erdogan's internal opposition and the Kurds in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Post-coup Turkish unity has conspicuously excluded the Kurdish-based People's Democratic Party (HDP), even though the party condemned the July 15 coup. A recent solidarity rally in Istanbul called by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) included the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), but the HDP -- the third-largest political organization in the country -- was not invited.
The deliberate snub is part of Erdogan's campaign to disenfranchise the HDP and force new elections that could give him the votes he needs to call a referendum on the presidency. This past June, Erdogen pushed through a bill lifting immunity for 152 parliament members, making them liable for prosecution on charges of supporting terrorism. Out of the HDP's 59 deputies, 55 are now subject to the new law. If the HDP deputies are convicted of terrorism charges, they will be forced to resign and elections will be held to replace them.
While Erdogan's push for a powerful executive is not overwhelmingly popular with most Turks -- polls show that only 38.4 percent support it -- the President's popularity jumped from 47 percent before the coup to 68 percent today. With the power of state behind him, and the nationalism generated by the ongoing war against the Kurds in Turkey's southeast, Erdogan can probably pick up the 14 seats he needs to get the referendum.
The recent Turkish invasion of Syria is another front in Erdogan's war on the Kurds. While the surge of Turkish armor and troops across the border was billed as an attack on the Islamic State's (IS) occupation of the town of Jarablus near the Turkish border, it was in fact aimed at the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG).
According to Al Monitor, the IS had been withdrawing from the town for weeks in the face of a YPG offensive, and the Turks invaded to preempt the Kurds from taking the town. The question now will be how far south the Turks go, and whether they will get in a full-scale battle with America's Kurdish allies? The Turkish military has already supported the Free Syrian Army in several clashes with the Kurds. Since the invasion included a substantial amount of heavy engineering equipment, the Turks may be planning to stay a while.