As the U.S. and its allies prepare for another round of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, powerful and wealthy opponents -- from the halls of Congress to Middle East capitals -- are maneuvering to torpedo them. At stake is the real possibility of a war with consequences infinitely greater than the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
When the U.S., Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany -- the so-called "P5+1 -- sit down with Iran's negotiators in Geneva on Nov. 7, those talks will be shadowed by an alliance of hawkish U.S. Congress members, an influential Israeli lobby, and a new regional alliance that upends traditional foes and friends in the Middle East.
The fact that the first round of talks on Oct.15 was hailed by Iran and the P5+1 as "positive" has energized opponents of the negotiations, who are moving to block any attempts at softening international sanctions against Teheran, while at the same time pressing for a military solution to the conflict.
Current international sanctions have halved the amount of oil Iran sells on the international market, blocked Teheran from international banking, and deeply damaged the Iranian economy. The worsening economic conditions are the backdrop for the recent election of pragmatist Hassan Rowhani as president of Iran. Hassan's subsequent efforts to move away from the confrontational politics of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears a signal that Iran wants to peacefully resolve a crisis that has heightened tensions in the region and led to everything from the assassination of Iranian scientists to the world's first cyber war.
The central issue is whether Iran is constructing a nuclear weapon in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a charge Teheran denies. Iran is a NPT signatory and UN inspectors regularly monitor the country's civilian power plants and nuclear facilities. Enhanced fuel is required for civilian power plants and medical research, but it is also an essential ingredient in a nuclear weapon. Iran enhances some of its fuel to 20 percent. Bomb fuel must be 90 percent pure.
While no one claims Iran has a nuclear weapon, Teheran has been less than candid about all its activities and critics charge that Iran is preparing to build one. But the Iranians say that secrecy is necessary -- four of their nuclear scientists were assassinated by Israeli agents, and their nuclear industry was severely damaged by a joint Israeli-US cyber attack.
The upcoming negotiations will try to find common ground, but there are actors in this drama whose agenda have less to do with nuclear weapons than the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. The coalition opposed to a peaceful resolution of the current crisis is a combination of traditional hawks and strange bedfellows.
On the U.S. side are the usual suspects.
There are the neo-conservatives who pressed so hard to invade Iraq, including former UN ambassador John Bolton, who recently called for Israel to attack Iran, former Pentagon analyst Matthew Kroenig, Gary Schmitt of the American Enterprise Institute, and historian Niall Ferguson.
They are joined by congressional hawks ranging from the traditional "we never saw a war we didn't like" types -- Republican Senator Lindsay Graham who plans to introduce a resolution authorizing the use of military force against Iran -- to Democrats, like liberal Ron Wyden, co-sponsor of a bill that would urge the U.S. to aid Israel militarily if Tel Aviv attacked Teheran.
A similar cast of characters helped sink a 2010 Brazilian-Turkish peace initiative that would have sent Teheran's enhanced fuel to a third country.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is lobbying Congress in an effort to constrain the Obama administration's negotiating options, and encouraging the Senate to pass a bill that would essentially prevent Iran from selling any of its oil. Many in the Congress have adopted the Israeli government's demand that Iran dismantle much of its nuclear industry and agree to end all enhancement activities, two things Teheran will almost certainly refuse to do.
While enhancement is not specifically mentioned in the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Article IV of the document guarantees the right "to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy," which treaty signers have long interpreted as the right to produce fuel for civilian nuclear power.
The Israeli government and its American supporters demand an end to enhancement, a demand that would throw a monkey wrench into the negotiations. So far the Obama administration has remained silent on the issue, although back in 2009 then Senator, and now Secretary of State, John Kerry told the Financial Times that demanding Iran end enhancement was "ridiculous."
U.S. opponents of any deal that is not an abject surrender by Teheran are the same old, same old, but not so in the Middle East, where a newly formed alliance is mobilizing to derail the nuclear talks: the Gulf monarchies, Egypt, and Israel.
The linchpin of this new alliance is Saudi Arabia and Israel, and their target is any rapprochement between Washington and Teheran. According to UPI, "secret meetings between Israeli and Arab intelligence chiefs" and other "senior officials" have been held in Jordan for several years. Their aim, according to Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren, is to destabilize the so-called "Shiite crescent," the "strategic arc that extends from Teheran, to Damascus to Beirut." The Shiite-dominated government of Iraq, currently under siege by Sunni extremists, is also in the cross hairs.