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From Down With Tyranny
Global average temperature during the Holocene. Blue curve: Global temperature reconstruction from proxy data of Marcott et al, Science 2013. Recent instrumental measurements shown in red. The instrument reading (red line) is four years out of date.
(Image by Graph: Klaus Bitterman.) Details DMCA
Bottom line first -- We now have one more source saying that global warming is well above +1 degreesC and headed higher at unanticipated rates. Key quote: We're in "truly uncharted territory." To jump to that news, click here.
In 1781 James Watt patented a steam engine that produced continuous rotary motion. Watt's ten-horsepower engines enabled a wide range of manufacturing machinery to be powered. The engines could be sited anywhere that water and coal or wood fuel could be obtained. By 1883, engines that could provide 10,000 hp had become feasible. The stationary steam engine was a key component of the Industrial Revolution, allowing factories to locate where water power was unavailable. The atmospheric engines of Newcomen and Watt were large compared to the amount of power they produced, but high-pressure steam engines were light enough to be applied to vehicles such as traction engines and the railway locomotives.Anthony Anderson wrote in New Scientist that Watt's improvements to the steam engine "converted it from a prime mover of marginal efficiency into the mechanical workhorse of the Industrial Revolution." Wikipedia adds that the "availability of efficient, reliable motive power made whole new classes of industry economically viable, and altered the economies of continents."
"It has been widely reported that 2015 will be the first year where temperatures climbed to 1C above the pre-industrial. That might make it seem like we've got quite a ways to go until we breach the 2C limit. But the claim is wrong. We exceeded 1C warming more than a decade ago. The problem is that here, and elsewhere, an inappropriate baseline has been invoked for defining the 'pre-industrial.' The warming was measured relative to the average over the latter half of the 19th century (1850-1900). In other words, the base year implicitly used to define 'pre-industrial' conditions is 1875, the mid-point of that interval. Yet the industrial revolution and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with it, began more than a century earlier. ...Mann's Figure 1 at the link shows global warming, not just North American warming, to be greater than what was modeled by the IPCC, closer to +1.3 degreesC or more, using his new baseline.
"[U]sing the more appropriate 1750-1850 pre-industrial baseline, we see that the Northern Hemisphere average temperature (gray squiggly curve [in Figure 3 at the link]) has already warmed nearly 1.2C. Temperatures have exceeded 1C above pre-industrial levels for most of the past decade."
Pre-Industrial CO2 is the broad flat blue line above at roughly 280 ppm that starts around 10,000 years B.P. (before the present era) and doesn't begin to rise appreciably until about the year 1800, at which point it shoots up
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We've now reached nearly 410 ppm at this year's monthly peak (up-to-date, interactive NOAA chart here). Not good.
"State of the Warming Climate in 2016: 'Truly Uncharted Territory'David Carlson, the director of the WMO-sponsored World Climate Research Program, adds, "We are now in truly uncharted territory."
"World Meteorological Organization reveals extent of global warming's impacts last year, including epic Arctic melting, drought and extreme weather
"The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its annual State of Global Climate report on Tuesday, noting a year of broken records and extreme weather events -- climate change trends that are continuing into 2017.
"'This report confirms that the year 2016 was the warmest on record -- a remarkable 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period,' said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. That temperature rise marks a 0.06 degrees Celsius increase over the record set in 2015. The Paris climate agreement commits the world's nations to holding the atmospheric temperature increase to below 2 degrees Celsius, to try to stave off potentially catastrophic global warming.
"Average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels hit a record high, at 400 parts per million, and projections for 2017 are even higher. The U.K. Met office recently forecast that this year's monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa could reach nearly 410 parts per million in May, and the 2017 average could be 2-3 parts per million higher than last year.
"'The influence of human activities on the climate system has become more and more evident,' wrote Taalas in the report's foreword. 'This influence is increasingly being demonstrated by attribution studies for some of the most critical weather and climate extremes, in particular extremes related to heat.'"