The recent deal with Iran is about to open the floodgates on 80 million anxious first-worlders who have the where-with-all to become huge game changers across the industries and across the globe. The winners are going to reap trillions of dollars in gains over the coming decades while the losers are going to see their global market share shrink like a raisin in the noonday sun. Incredible as it may seem, the US holds almost all the cards and it will most likely come away as the biggest loser of all.
How is this possible, you ask? Easy.
First, let's look at the open floodgates. Iran is a young country. It has been part of the Western world for over a century. They are very well versed in all the new technologies, are extremely well educated and have an entrepreneurial esprit that is second to none. They have been denied the world's stage for the past two decades, but that doesn't mean that they have been sitting on their hands watching the rest of us. They've been plotting and planning, knowing their day will come. Well, here it is and they can't wait to strut their stuff.
In Europe, Russia and China, there's no wait. Young Iranians will soon be able to join the millions in techie institution everywhere and apply for work visas with the biggest and most innovative companies. In the US, however, there will continue to be a two to sixteen month delay while the State Department verifies each and every case to see if the individual poses a terrorist threat to Americans. Most young techies won't wait over a year just to see if they "passed the background check" or not.
The mature companies from Persia are also ready to enter the global rat race and the savvy Germans and French are beating down their doors. The German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel has already visited Tehran with the French and Italian delegations to follow. British Prime Minister Cameron even called Iranian President Rouhani to congratulate him and to confirm that Britain would reopen its embassy as soon as possible. The Europeans are falling all over themselves to court the Iranians.
But they are playing second fiddle to the Russians and the Chinese. The Russians have just pulled off a double economic coup, combining the BRICS summit with the SCO summit (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at Ufa, Russia, where Iran was summarily courted and all but installed as the next full member of both. Can you say B-R-I-I-C-S? With the NDB (which I discuss here) and the AIIB (which I discuss here), Iran is being brought into the BRICS fold with all the pomp and circumstance worthy of an emerging powerhouse.
In the US bubble media, Americans have never heard of Ufa, don't know what SCO is, and find the BRICS acronym slightly amusing. There is absolutely no talk of courting Iranian business nor of introducing American goods and services to the Iranians as a way of boosting American growth. American media care more about furthering a tired old meme than they do about promoting and growing American businesses abroad.
And those industries where Iran excels? Let's start with oil and gas. It is acknowledged as one of the world's leaders in both areas, but decades of neglect due to the sanctions have created a huge infrastructure problem. This needs to be attended to immediately. The cost is thought to be $185 billion in oil and gas projects but the benefits will outweigh the costs ten-fold. And who will get these lucrative contracts to bring Iran up to speed? Europe and Asian countries probably, but certainly not the US.
Other major industries such as petroleum, petrochemicals and other petroleum products as well as fertilizers, caustic soda, textiles, cement and other construction materials, food processing (particularly sugar refining and vegetable oil production), ferrous and non-ferrous metal fabrication, computer products, internet technologies and other modern technologies are all up for grabs on the international market, but little of this will be available to American businesses.
American politicians, lead mainly by Republicans, but accompanied by many Democrats, are already mounting an incredible fight to stop the US from earning even one dollar from the Iranian Nuclear Arms deal. According to Fox News, "House Speaker John Boehner vowed Wednesday to do "everything possible" to stop the newly struck Iran nuclear deal, as Congress formally begins consideration of the hard-fought pact, " even though Fox fully admitted in the same article, "The U.N. action would not take effect for 90 days. Congress technically has limited leverage over the international aspects of the agreement." In other words, the only country that Boehner and his cohorts hope to influence is the US and all they can do is assure that American businesses are kept from any gains. And Fox supporters read only the headline and repeat, "Boehner vows fight to scuttle Iran nuclear deal," without ever realizing how ridiculous and hurtful to American business that really is.
Above all, let's not forget the essential. Iran never, ever had a nuclear weapons program to begin with. As late as 2012 the LA Times reported that all intelligence agencies everywhere concluded that Iran had no such program. This has always been a shell game run by the US hawks for the pleasure of the Israelis. There has never been a nuclear weapons program and now that the game has become exceedingly tiring for the whole world, only the US wants to continue playing it to the detriment of all US businesses and the American economy. Even though Iranians may want to become the next Steve Jobs, they will be shunned by the US for the foreseeable future.
Now on to plan B.
The military option has always been on the table for the US. It is always on the table for the US. The US loves this option and they use it often. There are many in the US government who would love to use it here once again. After all, it sounds so, er so, uh American, right? Vietnam -- war! Afghanistan -- war! Iraq -- war! And of course, all of these nations are so much better off than before, right? We have intervened in Iran, Guatemala, Chile, Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Syria, Libya, Venezuela among others and always on the side of dictatorial monsters who lorded over their citizens with an iron fist.
But putting boots on the ground in Iran will be different. They are quite a bit bigger than the aforementioned nations and a lot more armed. They don't have the David v Goliath complex that the other countries felt when being invaded and they are not divided, unlike those cited above. They will fight tooth and nail for every inch of their country and America will wind up paying a terrible price for its illegal intervention. While the previous wars resulted in a US defeat, retreat and ultimate indifference, a war with Iran will cause American casualties on such a scale that it will make WWII look like a scrimmage match in comparison.Fox News wants war. Many Republicans and some Democrats want war. Israel wants war. They know that there is no economic gain from this deal and the only other alternative for them is to fight. But to do so is to alienate the US from the world stage. The rest of the world is tired of American bullying and sees little need for more bloodshed over a nonissue that is finally at its end. Should the US follow Plan B, it shall do so at the peril of its own existence among the brotherhood of nations.