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OpEdNews Op Eds    H4'ed 5/3/19

The Democrats can Crush unpopular Trump in 2020, but only if they Run to the Left

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From Informed Comment

Democratic Candidates
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A new CNN/SSRS poll of about 1,000 people shows that among a random sample of registered voters, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden each crush Trump by 6 to 7 points, even at this very early point in the campaign. Kamala Harris also wins, but by a smaller margin. This poll shows enormous enthusiasm for Beto O'Rourke, which, however, I suspect is a fluke of some sort.

It isn't enough, as our cable news shows too often do, to just look at the horse race among personalities.

Democrats have to ask about the issues on which they can defeat Trump. Despite being absolutely despised by over 60 percent of the population, he does have some winning issues. But he also has Achilles' heels.

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On health care, 53% are upset and only 38% are satisfied. That's an issue on which the Dems have to run, and they have to run on medicare for all, i.e., single payer. It is the only way to fix US health insurance, which is badly broken for most people. For my money, Bernie is the one who is most believable on affordable health-care and health-care insurance, but I think the issue is there and resonating for anyone who will pick it up and run with it. This was the lesson of the midterm elections.

There is a 10-point spread on foreign affairs, with 52% upset with Trump's policies and only 42% in favor. Democrats haven't been strong on foreign policy, though to be fair Joe Biden was on the Senate Select Committee on Foreign Affairs for decades and had foreign relations portfolios as vice president. Biden may be best placed to articulate a critique of Trump on this issue. If the more progressive wing of the party wants to win on it, they have to spend more time working out a progressive foreign policy alternative. But the polling says Trump's foreign policy is low-hanging fruit waiting to be plucked by a knowledgeable politician.

55% are upset about US race relations under Trump, compared to 38% who are satisfied. It is not usually realized that Bernie Sanders has more African-American support than Kamala Harris. In any case, this issue is gold for the Democrats. Trump is trying to break our multi-ethnic society and we must not let him.

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These point spreads are huge, and registered voters clearly consider several of the Dems very attractive, especially if the choice is they or Trump.

I say 2016 was a fluke and that the presumption should be that Trump is out of office in January 2021. But this prediction will only come true if Dems run to the left and run on these sorts of big ticket items.

NB: Although the sample size is small at about 1,000, and the sampling error could be nearly 4 points, Bernie, Joe and Beto would be still way out ahead even if the sample was off slightly. (And that the results are so consistent tells me they are not).

Bonus video:

CBS This Morning: "Road to 2020: Where candidates stand"

 

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Juan Cole Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Juan Cole is an American academic and commentator on the modern Middle East and South Asia.  He is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. Since 2002, he has written a weblog, Informed Comment (more...)
 

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2 people are discussing this page, with 3 comments


Dennis Kaiser

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In order to win the 2020 election the Dems need to stop this Russia gate nonsense and other nitpicking items that only put Trump in the role of victim. I believe simply letting him dig holes for himself without bombarding him with these items that can be "explained" and simply make him look like he "won" again would be more effective. As long as he has more or less given the reigns to the like of Bolton, Pompeo, and Abrams it wouldn't be hard finding dismal results. That said, every Dem who sides with Trump on the Venezuelan crisis is making Trump look good. Take a stand, even against your donors, to let the people know that what is going on in Venezuela is a war crime and crime against humanity. These sanctions, which are more than bombs being dropped on the nation, have already killed some 40,000 people, let that be known rather than siding with Trump and his goons in calling Guaido a legitimate democratically elected President. He was none of that, he is a traitor! He not only never won an election, but he also didn't even run in one. The democratic election that was held had Maduro winning. For once Dems have to stand up and let the truth be known, particularly in Venezuela as it would be a huge step in beating him in 2020. Going along with him and his thugs only solidifies his posture as President.

Submitted on Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:01:55 PM

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kappie

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While i agree on all your issues statement,most Americans don't give a horses back end about Venezuela and our attempts to put another dictator on the throne in south America.In fact our wonderful news has brainwashed most americans that Madaruo is illegal because most people don't go beyond listening to our major republican owned news networks.So yes whoever is elected i hope he supports the real elected presient in venezuela but i hope he doesn't make it a major campaign issue

Submitted on Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 2:05:31 PM

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You're right on that, but it's mainly because they only hear what the media millionaires are ordered to tell us. I believe a poll would have the majority thinking Guaido was democratically elected and Madura is a thug attempting to keep him from taking office. They would also believe it is Maduro who mismanaged the funds as to why people have died, etc. it certainly wasn't the sanctions of the United States.

Submitted on Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:55:51 PM

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