Nabucco - the alleged gas Holy Grail from the Caspian Sea to Europe, 4,000 kilometers from Turkey to Austria -- is the perennial Pipelineistan soap opera.
Part of the gas to supply Nabucco may come from Azerbaijan. Another part might -- a very problematic "might" -- come from Turkmenistan. But every self-respecting energy analyst knows Nabucco could only possibly work if it was supplied by natural gas from Iran. That will happen over Washington's collective dead body.
As with all things Pipelineistan, there are layers and layers of nuance. Moscow is pulling out all the stops to prevent Iran from eventually joining Nabucco -- because its top policy agenda is to extend its stranglehold over the EU's gas supply to 30%.
The crucial Azerbaijan gas angle is centered on the huge Shah Deniz 2 fields. For what is called the Southern Corridor, via Italy, two possible pipelines are in competition. Then there are two others competing on a Northern/Balkans route; one of them is Nabucco; the other, faithful to the acronym-laden ethos of Pipelineistan, is the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP). Only next year will the world know the end chapter for this never-ending soap opera.
For the Northern/Balkans route, the fat lady may be about to sing for Nabucco. The favorite to win is a BP project, much cheaper than Nabucco, and with no need to use Turkmen gas.
BP -- of Gulf of Mexico polluting fame -- happens to be the major stockholder of Shah Deniz 2. Azerbaijan -- mired in corruption -- can be reasonably described as BP country. Even his close ally Washington knows Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is something of a Mafia boss. The Azeris, by the way, happen to be very popular in Washington courtesy of the Israeli lobby.
We play chess the win-win way
A certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan battle is Turkey. After all, any gas from Azerbaijan towards Europe must transit through Turkey. Since last December, in fact, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a memorandum in place committing both to the construction of the TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline). TANAP will eventually become part of the Southern Corridor.
Even if Azerbaijan decides to sell its extra gas wealth to Russia, Turkey also wins. Turkey has authorized the underwater passage of the Russian-Italian (Vladimir Putin-Silvio Berlusconi?) South Stream pipeline in its territory in return for even more robust trade and energy ties with Russia.
With Putin back in the presidency in May, the strategy that he laid out back in 2000 is graphically paying all kinds of dividends.
Gazprom's head Alexei Miller -- appointed by Putin -- is totally invested in creating a complex economy of scale with energy supplying countries in the region, applying a very Chinese "win-win" mentality.