Given the horrific toll of the Iraq War, that disastrous misadventure hardly seems like a good template for combating COVID-19. Yet in key ways, recent pronouncements from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis--whose state is experiencing an overwhelming surge in cases and hospitalizations amid his prohibition on mask requirements--should remind us of the propaganda we once heard from Donald Rumsfeld, the late former Secretary of Defense. The deadly consequences are reminiscent too.
In particular, three "political mind games" stand out. Each takes advantage of a core psychological concern that influences how we make sense of the world. First, "It's a False Alarm": when others raise doubts about your plan, offer overconfident assurances of success. Second, "Don't Blame Us": when your rosy predictions are proven wrong, deny that anything could have been done to prevent the setbacks. And third, "They're Misguided and Misinformed": when you're questioned about falling short, attack the media for purportedly misrepresenting events. Tragically, this trio of manipulative appeals has spanned time and space, from Iraq almost twenty years ago to the Sunshine State today. Let's briefly examine each component in turn.
The "It's a False Alarm" mind game targets our psychological concerns about vulnerability. It's regularly used by officials to argue that the dangers others have identified are either imaginary or greatly exaggerated. This is a message that fits well with the public's preference to see the world as a predominantly safe place. When we're told that our worries are overblown and there's no cause for alarm, we're eager to embrace the good news--especially when the "all clear" signal comes from an authoritative source. Unfortunately, such unwarranted guarantees provide opportunities for the continuation of foolhardy and destructive policies.
Consider that in 2002, just months before the invasion of Iraq, Rumsfeld confidently assured a radio audience, "I can't tell you if the use of force in Iraq today would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn't going to last any longer than that." He also boasted, "I don't do quagmires." And three weeks into the war, Rumsfeld triumphantly declared, "the Iraqi people are well on their way to freedom." As for concerns raised about lawlessness in Baghdad, he responded, "Stuff happens...freedom's untidy."
So too, DeSantis has taken to promoting a deceptive and dangerous upbeat message, one that ignores dire warnings from public health experts. For instance, at a news conference this past February he explained, "I don't get bent out of shape about these positive tests because if you test 200,000 people, you're gonna get a lot of positive tests, so that's never been the barometer we've used." More recently, he offered this unfounded assurance about the school year ahead: "I think kids are very low risk...I'm confident that things will go well." The governor is even selling campaign merchandise with mottos like "How the hell am I going to be able to drink a beer with a mask on?"
Turning to the "Don't Blame Us" mind game, this appeal exploits our psychological concerns about issues of helplessness. It's routinely used by officials who want to cover their tracks when anything with their fingerprints on it blows up--literally or figuratively. In these situations, they claim that the responsibility lies elsewhere, or the bad outcomes couldn't possibly have been anticipated, or the resulting harm could never have been prevented anyway. Convincing evidence to support their innocence is rarely provided, but these excuses can still lead the public to underestimate their culpability.
For example, as the U.S death toll in Iraq mounted and the war effort stalled, Rumsfeld refused to admit to any mistakes. During a town hall meeting with troops in late 2004, he dismissed their concerns about inadequate protective equipment this way: "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." He then added, "You can have all the armor in the world on a tank and a tank can be blown up." Six months later, when questioned about his possible strategic errors, Rumsfeld offered this exculpatory analysis: "You have to remember that in every war, a battle plan doesn't survive first contact with the enemy. This is in history. Why? Because the enemy has a brain and they're constantly adapting...It isn't a mistake. It's just reality."
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