Send a Tweet
Most Popular Choices
Poll Analyses
Share on Facebook 4 Share on Twitter Printer Friendly Page More Sharing
OpEdNews Op Eds    H3'ed 3/16/20

Relax, Joe Doesn't Need Bernie and Certainly Not AOC to Oust Trump

Author 13975
Follow Me on Twitter     Message earl ofari hutchinson
Become a Fan
  (11 fans)

It's funny how so many things in politics become articles of faith even when there is absolutely no basis in fact to them. Here's one that even had me going for a while. That's that Joe Biden must, just must, have Bernie's Sanders and AOC's progressive hordes on board the 2020 presidential campaign ship to have a prayer of beating Trump.

It is easy to swallow that myth for a couple of reasons. One, Bernie and company keep telling us that. The other is we see the rock star, Mother Teresa like adoration, that Bernie gets at every campaign pit stop from his boosters. The crowds are young, boisterous, intimidating, and exploding with energy, and are, so we are told, both the wave of the present and future, and the new heart and soul of the Democratic Party.

But then something happened to burst this strange bit of political mythology. Biden started winning, and winning, and winning. He didn't just win he scored at the top or near the top in bagging the votes of all the key Democratic voter demographics, olderand even many young- Blacks, Latinos, college educated suburban women, a big swatch of union, less educated blue collar, and even rural voters. The seeming big shocker was Biden even got a big chunk of the youth vote, supposedly Bernie's sacred and untouchable core.

Biden's big demographic vote score is the sober, much needed reminder that it's the tried and true, traditional, moderate, Democratic voter base that elects Democratic presidents. This was the case with Bill Clinton and Obama. And but for the Electoral College, it would have been the case with A Gore, and Hillary Clinton, who smashed the record for a losing presidential candidate getting far more of the popular vote than the winner.

That's only the start. In the 2018 midterm election, every self-proclaimed progressive Democratic candidate in the dozens of swing congressional districts that flipped to elect a Democratic rep, lost. The winners were all moderate, centrist, and very cautious Democrats. The message from those voters was loud and clear: we despise Trump's actions and many of his policies, but we want measured, thoughtful, incremental, not radical, change.

There's more. AOC's 116th Congressional district in New York City is one of the most liberal on the planet and one of the few in the country tailor made for her democratic socialist advocacy. But even in that district she bombed badly with older Black and Hispanic and working-class voters in parts of the district. Even while other newly minted freshman Democratic congresspersons, all moderate, have gotten some legislation through the House, AOC has scored a near zero goose egg here.

The other brutal political reality is that outside of big pockets on the West and East Coasts, and some college towns, the Bernie-AOC progressives are scarce as hen's teeth. They are certainly near non -existent among the Trump leaning swing voters that Biden will take a stab at wooing in the four heartland states and Florida that will decide the White House.

Biden likely will not peel most of them away. But he doesn't need most of them anyway. Just make enough of a dent in this Trump base to ensure these states swing back Democrat. That, along, with his sure win of the traditional Democratic voter base, should do the trick for him.

Then there are the overall Democratic vote numbers. The raw numbers show that Democrats on paper outnumber Republicans by 20 million votes. The numbers that count are those that actually trek to the polls and make that trek consistently. Again, Obama won the popular vote in 2012 by tens of millions of votes. He got just short of 5 million more votes than GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney. Toss in the overall vote total for the two mid-term elections in 2010 and 2014, and the scorecard reads 103 million votes for Democrats to 98 million votes for Republicans.

Bernie repeatedly claims that he, and only he, can guarantee the greatest voter turnout in the nation's history. The puffery and hyperbole aside, there's really no need to have a Tsunami of voters flooding the vote booths for the Democrats. The need is simply for the traditional Democratic base to show up in the crucial must win swing states. If the 2020 primaries are any evidence, they will.

Meaning, the soundings from the Bernie or bust crowd, whether ultimately hot air or not, won't much matter in deciding the final outcome of the 2020 presidential contest. Biden just needs to stay on the moderate, forward pitched, course that has been the winning formula for all past Democratic presidents. So, relax, Joe doesn't need Bernie or AOC to oust Trump.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His latest book What's Right and Wrong with the Electoral College (Middle Passage Presss) He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on Radio One. He is the host of the weekly Hutchinson Report on KPFK 90.7 FM Los Angeles and the Pacifica Network. He publishes the political blog thehutchinsonreeport.net

 

Rate It | View Ratings

earl ofari hutchinson Social Media Pages: Facebook page url on login Profile not filled in       Twitter page url on login Profile not filled in       Linkedin page url on login Profile not filled in       Instagram page url on login Profile not filled in

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is a nationally acclaimed author and political analyst. He has authored ten books; his articles are published in newspapers and magazines nationally in the United States. Three of his books have been published in other (more...)
 
Go To Commenting
The views expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Writers Guidelines
Contact AuthorContact Author Contact EditorContact Editor Author PageView Authors' Articles
Support OpEdNews

OpEdNews depends upon can't survive without your help.

If you value this article and the work of OpEdNews, please either Donate or Purchase a premium membership.

STAY IN THE KNOW
If you've enjoyed this, sign up for our daily or weekly newsletter to get lots of great progressive content.
Daily Weekly     OpEdNews Newsletter
Name
Email
   (Opens new browser window)
 

Most Popular Articles by this Author:     (View All Most Popular Articles by this Author)

The House is duty-bound to Bring Articles of Impeachment against Clarence Thomas

Tea Party Now a Huge GOP Liability

Think of the Two Decade Embarrassment of Thomas We Would Have Been Spared If We had known about Thomas's Porn Alleged Ob

The Awful Transformation of Bernie Sanders

Clarence Thomas Can Breathe a Sigh of Relief with Weiner Downfall

Did Race Explain Penn State's Blind Eye to Sex Scandal?

Comments

The time limit for entering new comments on this article has expired.

This limit can be removed. Our paid membership program is designed to give you many benefits, such as removing this time limit. To learn more, please click here.

No comments