Imagine the classic United States neo-conservative wet dream; staring at Iran on a
map and salivating about the crossroads between
Europe and Asia, between the Arab world and the
Indian subcontinent, between the Arabian Sea and
Central Asia, with 10% of the world's proven oil
reserves (over 150 billion barrels) and 15% of
proven gas reserves -- an energy complex bigger
than Saudi Arabia and arbiter of the energy routes
from the Persian Gulf to the West and Asia via the
Strait of Hormuz.
So the neo-cons got their New Year's Eve Barack Obama administration's Iran sanctions/embargo package, duly replicated by the European poodle parade. But it was not supposed to be like this. The lap dancer leapt from the stage and applied a neck scissors on the armchair action man; he's suffocating, not her. The whole thing is ... misfiring! Just like the latest neo-con Big Idea -- the invasion, occupation and inevitable defeat in Iraq, to the tune of more than US$1 trillion.
Baby, sanction me one more time
Let's review some of the latest evidence. Tehran has just sent two of its warships through the Suez Canal towards the Mediterranean; they docked at the Syrian port of Tartus -- no less. Not so long ago, disgraced dictator and close House of Saud pal Hosni Mubarak would have probably bombed them.
Brent crude is hitting $121 a barrel -- an eight-month high. West Texas Intermediate, traded in New York, is hovering around $105. Brent is crucial, because it sets the consumer price for gasoline in most of the US and Western Europe. The neo-cons swore on their Bibles and Torahs there would be no oil spike. It happened -- like clockwork, proving once again their knowledge of market speculation is of a two-year-old (no offense to lovely two-year-olds).
The funds Tehran is losing because of the sanctions -- in terms of less exports to Europe -- are being largely compensated by the oil-price spike caused by the neo-con-driven warmongering. On top of it, Tehran is bound to sell more oil to its top Asian clients -- China, India, Japan and South Korea, and even Turkey, all of whom, with varying degrees of diplomacy, have told Washington to mind its own business.
As Asia Times Online had advanced, it took some time but Iran and China have just closed a new oil pricing deal. And the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is a definitive go. And Afghanistan and Pakistan -- as well as Iran -- badly want to be admitted at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), accelerating regional economic integration.
The fact that the Israel lobby drafters of the sanctions package couldn't foresee any of this proves once again they live the vegetative life of armchair "action" men.
Neo-con parrots are left to the "sanctions are biting" blah blah blah. Or to State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland, married to neo-con Robert Kagan, assuring pressure is being put on all these countries so they may do "what they can to increase sanctions, particularly to wean themselves from Iranian crude." Nobody is "weaning" from anything -- apart from the self-defeating European poodles.
Also exposed is the myth of Saudi spare capacity. There is none. Saudi reserves are falling at a rate of 3% a year (it's exporting 11.8 million barrels a day, and falling). Moreover, the House of Saud does not want to pump more oil; it needs high oil prices to bribe its own population out of noxious Arab Spring ideas.
Baby, I'm coming to get ya
From the point of view of Washington, the only thing that really counts in the interminable nuclear charade is whether Iran may reach the ability to build a nuclear weapon in record time in case the leadership in Tehran is absolutely sure the US/Israel axis will attack.