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Political Mathematics

By   Follow Me on Twitter     Message Michael Roberts       (Page 1 of 2 pages)     Permalink

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The presidential contest is over. And, yes, the Monday morning quarterbacks are out in full force dissecting, analyzing and parsing the 2012 elections and trying to find out how a political party could spend so much money and end up losing so badly even though the race was very, very close. The Republican Party's attack dogs are out en masse heaping scorn on President Obama and crying foul for what they now say was his negative campaigning.

The GOP's political kingmaker, Karl Rove, fresh off of an on-air meltdown on Fox 5 on election night, took to the Wall Street Journal's editorial pages to whine about the Obama Campaign's tactics writing that "Mr. Obama's campaign conducted a ruthlessly early negative campaign." This from a man who is on record as saying that when things are going badly for you politically "attack, attack, attack." Guess it's all right for the GOP and Rove to slander, lie, demean and ridicule their political opponents but when the Democrats do it to them it triggers immature pouting, finger-sucking and whining about the "bad Democrats."

My advice to Mr. Rove is to grow up. Get used to a Black president in the White House for the next four years.

Poor Republicans they trusted Karl Rove and invested heavily in his two Super Pacs -- American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS -- to the tune of over $300 million.   I guess those mega rich oligarchs are understandably upset for Rove's 1.29 % and 13% "success" rates respectively. People are describing the mood in the GOP post-Romney trashing as angry and still in denial. For example, Rush Limbaugh attacked Democrats and those who voted for President Obama as wanting freeness.

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Bill O'Reilly on Fox 5 News said that "they" -- the broad mass of Americans -- just want free stuff and that President Barack Obama will give it to "them."   And Rove in one of the most astounding statements seeped in arrogance and denial wrote that "Obama was lucky and that the October surprise was an act of God." In effect, "Hurricane Sandy caused it." That's like saying "the dog ate my homework."  

I know that Mr. Rove is considered one of America's top political strategists. But he obviously can't do political math. So let me explain a few political mathematic facts to him. The Democrats now have a "Blue Wall" -- 18 states that have voted Democratic (blue) for over six years. Once this wall holds the reality for Republicans is that before a vote is cast in a presidential election the Democrats will start with 242 electoral votes in the bank. What that means is that the path to 271 is much harder for the Republicans. So during the next four years look for Democrats to try to win a "light red" state like North Carolina and a red one like Arizona where the Latino factor will play big.

All of this points to a clear choice for the Republican Party. It either change based on the realities of the demographic and generational situation or change into irrelevance. It has to do some deep introspecting and either re-invents itself as the true party of Abraham Lincoln or a bastard horn-child of Rush Limbaugh and the Tea Party. As this historic election so clearly demonstrated ugliness and rancor have no place in modern politics. No matter what the ugliest sections of the Republican Party say the undisputed facts are that gay marriage, minority and women rights are modern agenda items that the vast majority of Americans take seriously.

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The Republican Party's position on rape, abortion and same sex marriage is antiquated and politically outdated. And if the likes of GOP stalwarts messers Limbaugh, Coulter, O'Reilley and Hannity believe that this narrow, rigid 18th century conservative thinking is the way to go in the 21st century, then they are truly delusional. Maybe they will resurrect Ronald Reagan who seems to still be the standard bearer years after his death. Talk about a reactionary party that is ideologically stuck in the 19th century.

Some other troubling issues   also lead me to conclude that if the Republican Party does not change its ways then the door will be opened for a third party to take control. The Tea Party and its brand of extremism can take over a weakened GOP. Its hawks in the House of Representatives can help to split the party and take it further and further to the extreme right -- a place that the vast majority of Americans do not want to go politically.

The Republican Party must also be concerned that its base. White men now account for only 33 percent of the U.S. electorate. And while President Obama in the 2012 Presidential Elections only got 39 percent of the white vote there are some very, very troubling numbers and statistics for the GOP.

1.      President Obama   won 93 percent of the Black vote

2.      71 percent of the Latino vote

3.      73 percent of the Asian vote

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4.      9 million Americans voted less for President Obama than in 2008

5.      And even with that Romney could not beat John McCain's 2008 number -- that would have given him the White House.

6.      In 1988 George HW Bush got 60 percent of the white vote and won the election while Romney who got more than that in 2012 got crushed. Times and demographics are changing.

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MICHAEL DERK ROBERTS Small Business Consultant, Editor, and Social Media & Communications Expert, New York Over the past 20 years I've been a top SMALL BUSINESS CONSULTANT and POLITICAL CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST in Brooklyn, New York, running (more...)

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