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Michael Klare, "The Battle Lines of the Future"

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This article originally appeared at TomDispatch.com.

Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt had a genuine howler the other day. On NBC's Meet the Press, he said, "Since the fourth quarter of last year until most recently, we've added almost 50,000 jobs in the coal sector. In the month of May alone, almost 7,000 jobs." Try instead maybe 1,000 jobs in the first four months of the Trump administration. And just to be accurate, let's add a few more numbers to the mix. According to Department of Energy figures, the coal industry, which has been losing jobs for years, now has about 54,000 mining jobs and employs about 160,000 people in total. To put that in context, solar power alone now employs 373,000 people part- or full-time in this country and yet represents only a small part of U.S. energy output, though it's growing fast.

A recent Sierra Club analysis of Energy Department job figures found that "nationally, clean energy jobs outnumber all fossil fuel jobs by over 2.5 to 1, and exceed all jobs in coal and gas by 5 to 1." In addition, on surveying the country's energy employment figures, on a state-by-state basis, the report found that "41 states and Washington, D.C. (80% of the total) have more clean energy jobs than fossil fuel jobs from all sources." In addition, according to a report from the Environmental Defense Fund's Climate Corps program, "solar and wind jobs are growing at a rate 12 times as fast as the rest of the U.S. economy."

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And as TomDispatch regular Michael Klare points out today, this is the sector of the energy economy that Donald Trump, the self-styled "jobs president" ("I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created"), essentially wants to shut down. In other words, he's ready to leave what could be one of the biggest job-generation machines on the planet -- renewable energy already employs an estimated 8.1 million people globally -- to the Chinese, the Germans, and other increasingly green-oriented countries. In this context, consider Klare's analysis of what a Trumpian new world order, organized around his own fossil fuel fixation, might look like and what it might mean for us all. Tom

Is Trump Launching a New World Order?
The Petro-Powers vs. the Greens
By Michael T. Klare

That Donald Trump is a grand disruptor when it comes to international affairs is now a commonplace observation in the establishment media. By snubbing NATO and withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, we've been told, President Trump is dismantling the liberal world order created by Franklin D. Roosevelt at the end of World War II. "Present at the Destruction" is the way Foreign Affairs magazine, the flagship publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, put it on its latest cover. Similar headlines can be found on the editorial pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post. But these prophecies of impending global disorder miss a crucial point: in his own quixotic way, Donald Trump is not only trying to obliterate the existing world order, but also attempting to lay the foundations for a new one, a world in which fossil-fuel powers will contend for supremacy with post-carbon, green-energy states.

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This grand strategic design is evident in virtually everything Trump has done at home and abroad. Domestically, he's pulled out all the stops in attempting to cripple the rise of alternative energy and ensure the perpetuation of a carbon-dominated economy. Abroad, he is seeking the formation of an alliance of fossil-fuel states led by the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, while attempting to isolate emerging renewable-energy powers like Germany and China. If his project of global realignment proceeds as imagined, the world will soon enough be divided into two camps, each competing for power, wealth, and influence: the carbonites on one side and the post-carbon greens on the other.

As noted in Foreign Affairs, this is a very different perception of the international system than that of then Wilsonian internationalists, who still see a world divided between liberal democracies (led by the U.S. and its European allies) and illiberal autocracies (led today by Vladimir Putin's Russia). Surprisingly, it is no less distinct from the disjointed global system portrayed by disciples of the late Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington, author of The Clash of Civilizations, who portrayed a world divided along "civilizational" lines principally distinguished by a clash between Islam and the Judeo-Christian West. Trump clearly has no patience with the first of these models and while he's certainly exploited anti-Islamic sentiment during the election campaign and in his first months in office, he does not appear wedded to the Huntington thesis either. His loyalty seems to be reserved solely for states that produce fossil fuels, while his disdain is largely directed at countries that favor green energy.

How you view the world -- which of these visions you embrace -- truly matters when it comes to shaping American foreign policy. If you favor a Wilsonian view (as do most American diplomats), your primary objective will be to bolster ties with Great Britain, France, Germany, and other like-minded democracies while seeking to limit the influence of illiberal autocracies like Russia, Turkey, and China. If you uphold a Huntingtonian outlook (as do many of Trump's followers, advisers, and appointees), your goal will be to resist the spread of Islamist movements, whether they are backed by Shiite-majority Iran or Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia. But if, like Trump, your view of the world is largely governed by energy preferences, none of these other considerations matter; instead, you will lend your support to nations that embrace fossil fuels and punish those that favor the alternatives.

Laying the Groundwork for a New World Order

The vigor with which Trump is pursuing this grand scheme was on full display during his recent visit to the Middle East and Europe, as well as in his decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. In Saudi Arabia, he danced and dined with oil-drenched kings, emirs, and princes; in Europe, he dismissed and disrespected NATO and the green-leaning European Union; at home, he promised to eliminate any impediment to the expanded exploitation of fossil fuels, the planet be damned. To critics, these all appeared as separate manifestations of Trump's destructive personality; but viewed another way, they can be seen as calculated steps aimed at bolstering the prospects of the carbonites in the forthcoming struggle for global mastery.

Step one in this process was to revitalize the historic U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer. For decades, it was the cornerstone of American policy in the Middle East, aimed at preserving a conservative political order in the region and ensuring American access to Persian Gulf oil. President Obama had allowed the alliance to fray by raising the unwelcome issue of human rights and negotiating with Iran over its nuclear enrichment program. Trump journeyed to Riyadh in May to assure the Saudi royals that human rights concerns would no longer be an irritant in their relations and that Washington would join them in their drive to combat Iranian influence in the region.

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"We are not here to lecture," Trump insisted. "We are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be, or how to worship. Instead, we are here to offer partnership." As part of this "partnership," he signed a $110 billion arms sales agreement with the Saudis. Expected additional sales over the coming decade could bring the total to $350 billion. Many of these arms, once delivered, will be used by the Saudis in their brutal air campaign against rebel factions in Yemen. The Saudis claim the rebels (mostly Houthis from the country's barren north) are receiving weapons from Iran, thereby justifying their own attacks, but most observers agree that such Iranian aid is limited at best. In the meantime, the Saudi strikes are taking a heavy toll on civilians and helping to create a humanitarian crisis that has contributed to a severe outbreak of cholera and threatens famine on a massive scale.

While in Riyadh, Trump also discussed closer ties between American energy firms and the Saudi oil industry, largely controlled by that country's royal family. "The two leaders stressed the importance of investment in energy by companies in both countries, and the importance of coordinating policies that ensure the stability of markets and an abundance of supplies," Trump noted in a joint statement with Saudi King Salman.

Step two in this process was the enfeeblement of the NATO alliance and the European Union (EU) -- most of whose members are strong supporters of the Paris climate agreement -- and the improvement of U.S. relations with Russia, the world's number two oil producer. So far, President Trump has been unable to make much progress on the second of these goals, thanks to the ongoing uproar in Washington over allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, but he achieved spectacular success in the first during his May 25th visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels. He even crossed up his own advisers by switching speeches at the last moment and refusing to commit himself to NATO's mutual defense agreement. He refused to reassure its members of Washington's commitment to the "one-for-all, all-for-one" principle embedded in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, obliging all member states to come to the aid of any member under attack (although he would later made an explicit commitment to that article during a White House press conference). In addition, he hectored them about their failure to devote adequate resources to the common defense. Other American presidents have offered similar complaints, but never in such a disdainful and dismissive manner, guaranteed to alienate key allies. On top of this, he appeared to differ with senior NATO officials over the threat posed to the alliance's solidarity by Russian cyber attacks and political meddling, downplaying their significance.

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Tom Engelhardt, who runs the Nation Institute's Tomdispatch.com ("a regular antidote to the mainstream media"), is the co-founder of the American Empire Project and, most recently, the author of Mission Unaccomplished: Tomdispatch (more...)
 

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