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OpEdNews Op Eds    H2'ed 5/22/12

It's a Wrap, Obama on Track: Gallup Speaks, Experts Squeak

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              If this is winning, what's losing mean?

How comforting to discover, long before $2 billion evaporates in our quadrennial mayhem of misdirection, the finale! Survey says: Obama gets an encore, unless the wary one flubs big-time or a Black Swan sidelines his headlines. I got evidence: the latest poll, elitist expertise, stock charts and detailed voting patterns back to 1860. Match that, Mitt, you twit.  

But, alas for the left, few glad tidings, just which brand of anti-progressive runs the White House. Okay, pedestrian mini-series deliver more suspense, but that's what we got. No high drama every election. Instead, a six-month, horror show full of faux suspense plays out -- "will the nice, stumbling right centrist beat back the mechanized, alien throwback?" -- only for the nation to end up treading water. Ah, the irony: everyone wants change, no one loves the status quo, and the majority reviles Congress, wonders about the president, and some days wants to drown government itself. Think on it: so much exertion, so many words and lies broadcast, all for this wimpy dead-end: the static status quo? Like other fantasies, salvation or quick domestic job growth, change rattles our collective unconscious, but reality is aloof and immovable.


And change per se is no panacea: ask any pessimist or ex-Obama fan punished by recalling the promise of '08. We malcontents only wish Obama acted with boldness, even tried out for "the most divisive figure in modern American history." That tea-stained distortion oozes from Marco Rubio, another joker oblivious to history going back, let's see, four years. Hey, dimwit, forget the most divisive V.P. ever -- indisputably the most divisive figure in modern politics? Along with his sidekick, Cheney's a black hole of lying divisiveness, leveraging minority rule to radically militarize foreign, economic and domestic policies.


Despite everything, Obama the reluctant warrior stands strong, if we trust Gallup's headline last week: -- 


Americans See Obama as Solid Favorite to Win Election

56% think Obama will win; 36% think Romney will


Plus, though Gallup's independents don't love Obama, twice as many (58-31%) expect him to win. Ditto: one quarter of the redneck right. And this majority gauge runs true since 1992, despite races nearly impossible to call by late October. Thus, banish astrologists, crystal balls, online betters, or pundit pontifications. Except for an infrequent outlier (one of four polls favored Gore in 2000, one backed Kerry in '04), every candidate this majority poll clearly anointed for five elections triumphed. Even with today's divided electorate, this polled audience isn't pushing its preferences (or outrage) but realistically favoring one well-funded, likeable incumbent over one well-funded, most disagreeable, lying flip-flopper -- on his good days. That means up to 10% will vote for Romney, predicting he'll lose.


A far more researched Obama pick comes from venerated political scientist Allan Lichtman, whose tested, 13-keyed system has predicted every popular vote winner since 1984. His evidence-driven books, like Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President , span results between 1860 and 1980. "Even if I am being conservative, I don't see how Obama can lose," claims Lichtman, "If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins."

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For a decade, Robert S. Becker's rebel-rousing essays on politics and culture analyze overall trends, messaging and frameworks, now featured author at OpEdNews, Nation of Change and RSN. He appears regularly at Dissident Voice, with credits (more...)

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