Black swan is the name of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's best-selling book (millions sold) and it could be used to describe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset defeat of incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley.
Taleb characterizes a black swan event as having three characteristics:
For at least 1400 years black swans were believed not to exist. The term "black swan" was used to describe something non-existent. Then, a whole lot of them were discovered in Australia.
- The event is a surprise (to the observer).
- The event has a major effect.
- After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's hugely successful book argues that black swan events often play major roles in history, citing 9/11 and the invention of the internet as examples.
I believe it is reasonable to characterize Ocasio-Cortez's win as a black swan event. That means that it could play a major role in history. It could open the sluice gates to Berniecrat victories and defeats of old-school Clinton DLC corporatist Democrats.
Over the coming days, the Pelosi-led powers that be will surely do as Taleb describes, and rationalize this beautiful black swan event, just as early critics of the computer said it could only be of interest to a handful of businesses.
Ocasio-Cortez, through her victory has opened a door that could see throngs of victorious progressive candidates swell through. Let's hope it happens soon enough, before the current Democratic leaders destroy the opportunity for victory that Donald Trump and his GOP sycophants have served up on a plate.
Rob Kall is an award winning journalist, inventor, software architect,
connector and visionary. His work and his writing have been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, ABC, the HuffingtonPost, Success, Discover and other media. He's given talks and workshops to Fortune
500 execs and national medical and psychological organizations, and pioneered
first-of-their-kind conferences in Positive Psychology, Brain Science and
Story. He hosts some of the world's smartest, most interesting and powerful
people on his Bottom Up Radio Show,
and founded and publishes one of the top Google- ranked progressive news and
opinion sites, OpEdNews.com
more detailed bio:
Rob Kall has spent his adult life as an awakener and empowerer-- first in the field of biofeedback, inventing products, developing software and a music recording label, MuPsych, within the company he founded in 1978-- Futurehealth, and founding, organizing and running 3 conferences: Winter Brain, on Neurofeedback and consciousness, Optimal Functioning and Positive Psychology (a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology, first presenting workshops on it in 1985) and Storycon Summit Meeting on the Art Science and Application of Story-- each the first of their kind. Then, when he found the process of raising people's consciousness and empowering them to take more control of their lives one person at a time was too slow, he founded Opednews.com-- which has been the top search result on Google for the terms liberal news and progressive opinion for several years. Rob began his Bottom-up Radio show, broadcast on WNJC 1360 AM to Metro Philly, also available on iTunes, covering the transition of our culture, business and world from predominantly Top-down (hierarchical, centralized, authoritarian, patriarchal, big) to bottom-up (egalitarian, local, interdependent, grassroots, archetypal feminine and small.) Recent long-term projects include a book, Bottom-up-- The Connection Revolution, debillionairizing the planet and the Psychopathy Defense and Optimization Project.
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