The U.S. empire's global influence projects, especially the ones in Iran and Hong Kong, have a different nature from the ones that were carried out when American power was still in a stable state. There's now an aspect of desperation to what America is doing abroad, an unacknowledged but ever-present reality that the purveyors of Western imperialism are fighting a losing battle against the inevitable process of imperial collapse.
As the capitalist class loses its reliable means for bending global politics to its will, the foundations of capitalist markets themselves are becoming increasingly fractured. The capitalist world's financial system, which for the last decade has been running on the same types of fraud that caused the 2008 economic crash, is due for an unraveling that all evidence says will create a depression-level downturn. Germany is already in an early stage of recession, and the slowdown in American corporate profits from recent months portends to the crisis reaching the United States.
As these events develop in relation to all of the other threats to the global capitalist order-climate change, growing class discontent from the world's poor and working people, civil unrest and refugee crises-the reaction from the ruling class is to step up the U.S./NATO empire's military expansionism and propaganda.
There's a term that historians use for this reactive phase that empires go through during their final years: micro-militarism. In the cases of Iran and Hong Kong, America's micro-militarism is on display in ways that are different but revealing.
The U.S. empire's losing battle against Iran (and against the other anti-imperialist countries)
America's campaign against Iran is motivated by the desire to reverse Iran's process of abandoning the dollar as a means for international exchange. Since Iran made this shift away from the dollar, it's been targeted with economic warfare and with bogus accusations of rogue nuclear development and support for terrorism. Yet America's political establishment continues to almost unanimously dislike the idea of starting an outright war with Iran.
Washington still hasn't invaded Iran both because doing so could create a war so gigantic that it would make it necessary to bring back the draft, and because the American public still overwhelmingly hates the idea of a war with Iran. A Gallup poll from last month stated that 8 in 10 Americans favor nonmilitary methods for stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. The Trump administration's effort this week to blame Iran for the bombing of a Saudi petroleum facility (a bombing which Houthi fighters have claimed responsibility for) isn't going to sway the public to view Iran otherwise. The Trump White House is losing the narrative battle over Iran, and Trump's handlers in the deep state don't want war with Iran to start because they know that it would cause far too much backlash from the populace.
Iran has become an obstacle that the U.S. isn't able to overcome. A war with Iran would undoubtedly be the crisis that makes this fragile empire implode; the U.S. would have to face up against a militarily mighty enemy in this scenario, and the American public would quickly turn against the war machine on the same level as what happened during the anti-Vietnam War movement. So the U.S. has lost Iran as an economic and political asset for the foreseeable future, just as it's so far failed to achieve regime change in Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria, north Korea, Russia, and China. The U.S. would of course lose if it were to try to overthrow all of these governments through military invasion.
Amid this piling up of losses in the game of empire, the members of the neoconservative political and media class have attempted plans for overthrowing these countries through approaches other than directly invading them. Naturally, the method of trying to overthrow governments by supporting opposition groups within the target countries has become unusually prevalent in U.S. operations in the last decade.
In 2017, National Council of Resistance of Iran associate Ali Safavi wrote a column titled "Regime change in Iran does not equal war in Iran," which advocated for this approach. Despite the sensible veneer that Safavi intended to integrate into the column, it was clearly meant to be a propaganda piece for the People's Mujahedin of Iran (or the MEK), a violent and cult-like organization that was at one point labeled as a terrorist group by the U.S. government. This is apparent from the fact that the latest tweet on Safavi's Twitter profile is an endorsement of the MEK, and from the fact that the MEK has allies in Washington.
But just as this year's attempted Venezuela coup has failed to gain enough support from within Venezuela's military, as Nicaragua's Sandinista government has prevailed amid U.S. operations to sow unrest in the country, and as Assad has defeated the U.S.-backed insurrectionary forces in Syria, the MEK's plans for manufactured revolution within Iran are far from being realized.
The U.S. is just as far from carrying out such a regime change operation in China, where the strongest contingent of U.S.-backed anti-China activism exists on an island that's not controlled by the Chinese government.
The West's last-ditch effort at recolonizing Hong Kong
Hong Kong is a holdout from Western colonialism whose time of separation from Chinese authority is running out the clock. In 2047, Hong Kong will become controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, ending the domination by Western capitalist interests that now exists within the city. The Hong Kong protests, which are taking place through support from American destabilization networks and are using China as a scapegoat for Hong Kong's problems, are the tool that the West is using to try to secure control over Hong Kong.
What's strange is that this Western effort towards recolonizing Hong Kong is being undertaken when there are still decades before the 2047 expiration date will become an issue at hand. What is the West trying to accomplish by initiating this struggle at a time when Hong Kong isn't in the process of being absorbed by China?