Two polls, two methodologies, two days, two very different results!
Beto O'Rourke leads Ted Cruz by 2 among likely voters in U.S. Senate race, new poll finds
The first poll that puts him ahead of Cruz.
BY KATHRYN LUNDSTROM SEPT. 19, 2018
Beto O'Rourke leads Republican incumbent Ted Cruz by 2 percentage points among likely voters, according to an Ipsos online poll released Wednesday in conjunction with Reuters and the University of Virginia.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters told Reuters they would vote for O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they would cast their ballot for Cruz. Three percent said they would vote for "Other," and 5 percent said "None."
A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday put Cruz 9 percentage points ahead of O'Rourke among likely voters. That poll was based on phone interviews, while the Ipsos poll used an online survey. But it's trying to predict who will show up on Election Day that shifts the numbers, said Ipsos Vice President Chris Jackson.
Ipsos is trying to gauge political enthusiasm on each side, said Jackson. The poll asked respondents to estimate the likelihood that they'd vote in the midterm elections on a scale from one to 10. "More Democrats are registering at the highest part of the scale, at the 10, than the Republicans," Jackson said. And that's what's interesting, he said, because Republicans usually have the momentum advantage in Texas.
"It demonstrates how Democrats are mobilized," said Jackson. "This election is going to be really competitive and its going be very hard fought."
Respondents were asked whether they perceived Cruz and O'Rourke as "traditional" politicians. Among likely voters, 76 percent saw Cruz as traditional, while only 32 percent perceived O'Rourke that way -- something that may be to O'Rourke's advantage in a political climate that leans away from establishment politics, Jackson said.
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Reliability of IPSOS/Reuters poll? New York Times in 2016:
The Reuters/Ipsos poll and the YouGov online polls were among the most accurate national polls leading up to the 2012 election, a Fordham University study found.
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