The last escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict differs from the previous ones not only in its geolocation, but also in the Turkish factor. Promising unconditional support for Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing Baku to wage war. Ankara considers the destabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus as an opportunity to increase its influence in the Turkic world.
Erdogan is not going to stop. Several columns of Turkish troops entered the territory of Azerbaijan on July 27 to participate in the joint exercises, that will last until August 10 in several regions at once.
Against the background of provocations in the Karabakh conflict and regional affairs, Armenia has the ability to interfere in the internal processes of Turkey by forming a circle of allies among the Kurds and Alevis living there. In the conditions of the formation of a multipolar world, the implementation of Turkey's geopolitical goals in the South Caucasus is hindered mainly by Russia, which plays a stabilizing mediating role and adheres to a conciliatory position.
Russia realizes that in the event of a clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there is an extremely great threat of being drawn into the conflict not only Turkey, but also Iran, which does not enter the interests of the Kremlin. Meanwhile, using its lobby Turkey is working comprehensively not only in Azerbaijan, but also in other countries of the post-Soviet space.
Turkish influence has already spread beyond the Caspian coast and reached Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and also Turkmenistan. The neo-Ottoman dimension of the Turkish president's agenda is an integral part of modern Turkish foreign policy. It aims to make Turkey a leading regional power in the wider Middle East and the Balkans, by re-establishing the boundaries of influence and living space of the once-Ottoman Empire.
In addition to the obvious claim to the role of a regional leader, which Ankara is trying to implement by interfering in numerous military conflicts in the Middle East, the country's leadership sets another important goal for itself - to become the undisputed leader among countries with a Turkish-speaking population. With the imperialist-minded leadership Turkey is unlikely to leave the idea of building a Turkic world. This tendency has a negative impact on Karabakh issue settlement.