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General News    H1'ed 2/9/20

Election Analyst Delves into Bernie's "Electability"

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My guest today is historian, election fraud investigator and author, Richard Hayes Phillips.

Joan Brunwasser: Welcome to OpEdNews, Richard. Back in 2008, we talked at great length about your forensic investigation of the 2004 presidential election in the crucial state of Ohio. Of late, you have appeared on Brad Friedman's BradBlog podcasts. This time, the topic has been whether or not Bernie Sanders is "electable". Tell us, please, how you have gone about determining the answer, at least for now, to that question.

Presidential Candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders
Presidential Candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders
(Image by Gage Skidmore)
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Richard Hayes Phillips: In the spring of 2016, while examining the official results of the Democratic presidential primaries, I saw the maps of each state, county by county, and I couldn't help but notice the strength of Bernie Sanders in rural America. Later, in the November election, Donald Trump's huge margins in these very counties carried him to victory over Hillary Clinton. The similarity of the maps has stuck with me ever since. It suggested to me that if Sanders had been the nominee in 2016, Trump would not have won the election.

In the run-up to the 2020 presidential primaries, I saw articles that were nothing more than opinion, proclaiming that Bernie Sanders is "unelectable." The reason was always the same: he is "too far left" to win over those swing voters in the battleground states, the "Blue Wall" where the 2020 election is likely to be decided. I knew that Sanders had won the Michigan primary, the Wisconsin primary, and the Minnesota caucus. I wondered how many of those who had supported Sanders in the primaries had actually voted for Trump in the general election.

I soon found actual data, a very large-scale poll, showing that these Sanders/Trump voters had made the difference in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the very states that had cost Hillary Clinton the election. When I saw that the current polling averages for head-to-head contests, state by state, show Sanders beating Trump in the electoral college, this analysis was confirmed. Bernie Sanders is not "unelectable." He would be a serious, viable, electable challenger to Donald Trump, and no one should overlook him on the mistaken notion that he cannot possibly win.

JB: Since the corporate press has been consistently and loudly banging on the drum of Bernie's supposed unelectability, let's go to the actual data that you studied. Can you give us an example or two of what you saw and what it signifies, to better illustrate your point?

RHP: The articles proclaiming that Bernie is "unelectable" are opinions, not based upon actual data. They say that current polls regularly show Biden beating Trump in the battleground states, which is true. The Real Clear Politics polling averages for head-to-head matchups in the general election, as of this posting, show Biden beating Trump by 368 to 170 in the electoral college, with a lead of 6.5% or more in enough states to win. This suggests that if the election were held today, Biden would be the strongest candidate. But the very same polls show Sanders beating Trump by 312 to 197 in the electoral college (with Florida a flat-footed tie), and leading by 2.5% or more in enough states to win. By this metric, although his margin is not as large, Sanders is not unelectable.

Map of Electoral College based upon current polling averages
Map of Electoral College based upon current polling averages
(Image by courtesy of RHP, using interactive map from 270towin.com)
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A massive nationwide poll conducted after the 2016 election strongly suggests that Trump would have lost if Sanders had been the nominee. Among 64,600 respondents, all of whom were verified as having actually voted in the primaries and the general election, 12% of those who voted for Sanders in the primaries voted for Trump in November. The percentages were 9% in Wisconsin, 8% in Michigan, and 16% in Pennsylvania, all of which equate to more than twice the margins by which Hillary Clinton lost these states and thus lost the electoral college.

Look at the maps from the 2016 primaries and caucuses.

Wisconsin Democratic Primary 2016
Wisconsin Democratic Primary 2016
(Image by Wikipedia)
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Bernie Sanders carried much of the "Blue Wall," defeating Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. All over the country, Bernie ran very strongly in rural America, in the very counties the Republicans are counting on to get Trump reelected. If Bernie is the nominee, it will be more difficult for Trump to run up the huge margins in rural counties that he would need to overcome the Democratic margins in urban areas.

Michigan Democratic Primary 2016
Michigan Democratic Primary 2016
(Image by Wikipedia)
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And Sanders did get more votes than Trump, nationwide, in the primaries and caucuses.

JB: How much do you trust the numbers you just cited? And why or why not?

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Joan Brunwasser is a co-founder of Citizens for Election Reform (CER) which since 2005 existed for the sole purpose of raising the public awareness of the critical need for election reform. Our goal: to restore fair, accurate, transparent, secure elections where votes are cast in private and counted in public. Because the problems with electronic (computerized) voting systems include a lack of (more...)
 

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5 people are discussing this page, with 16 comments  Post Comment


molly cruz

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I guess it's a stretch, but if Bernie were to have Pete as VP, seems to me it would fly. Obviously I don't hold with Rob's heated indictment of Buttegieg,along with a string of wildly negative posts from readers here.

Submitted on Sunday, Feb 9, 2020 at 4:06:33 PM

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"[I]f Bernie were to have Pete as VP, seems to me it would fly." Yeah, right into the dumpster fire the DNC ignited when they came out of the closet as the War Party. It will erase any latent feeling that just maybe Sanders would end the Endless War.

In terms of the potential for war profiteering, Butthead is the worst of the worse. Do a deep read about him before accuseing the criticisms against him as "wild."

Submitted on Sunday, Feb 9, 2020 at 9:02:37 PM

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molly cruz

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'Well hell's bells, John! I haven't delved I must admit, but I didn't get that impression from what I have read, nor heard him talk about. Seems like I missed something. Anything in particular you would suggest?

He does seem to have gotten around, for somebody of his tender age, seems bright and unusually erudite. I must say the weight behind the animosity toward him here is a surprise to me, and I read as much as I can. Not a hint of it in the debates, but then again, except for Tulsi, it hasn't been a heavy theme.

Submitted on Sunday, Feb 9, 2020 at 10:00:25 PM

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John Zwiebel

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Reply to molly cruz:   New Content

Molly,

Buttigieg uses a whole lot of words to say exactly nothing. He is the "new obama", a pretty face that is articulate seeming to really know what it is he might be commenting on, but the reality is quite different.


Here's an RSN article that claims Butti is financed by a Russian Oligarch.


May I also recommend this New Yorker Magazine podcast?

The first segment is about Black voters. I especially appreciate the line which I'll paraphrase, "Never believe a guy who is more popular nationally than he is locally". The story is that the people of South Bend think poorly of Mayor Pete.

Then the last segment is also informative because it is an interview of the Patriotic Millionaires. I especially appreciate the quote from their endorsed candidate Andy Kim of the NJ-3

I know @PeteButtigieg
, I trust Pete and I believe he's ready to move our country forward. #TeamPete

and this Young Turks review of Sanders vs. Butthole (sorry, I despise the guy) is absolutely required. Sanders NAILS Buttigieg at the last debate then Cenk absolutely destroys him.

If the Democrats want me to not vote for President, then make sure that Butthole is Bernie's VP.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 12:53:38 AM

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molly cruz

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Reply to John Zwiebel:   New Content

Didn't get printed; but if you can call someone "butthole" I can say your use of the term suggests your problem with him may be other than political; is decidedly tasteless, and rather than presenting facts, is all about you. Got a problem you'd like to tell us about?

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 6:27:23 PM

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911TRUTH

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Reply to molly cruz:   New Content

Buttigieg is nothing but a smooth talking snake oil salesman like No Hope No Change NObama v2.0

If he is the nominee, trump will crush him like a bug.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 5:04:28 PM

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molly cruz

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Reply to 911TRUTH:   New Content

Nonsense. Trump will fall apart, knowing the one thing he can't say, the elephant in the room, will doom him forever. Any stupid remarks Trump makes will crumble in the face of Pete's unfailing logic. He's not the only one on the Democratic team that can defeat Trump either. Trump is a mess, his brain is failing, his body is decrepit, and he's practically alone in the White House now, having fired or disgusted everyone around him. Why anyone is afraid of him is beyond me.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 6:33:13 PM

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Reply to molly cruz:   New Content

This is who Buttigieg is.

Pete Buttigieg Lets Slip His Austerity Agenda

Pete Buttigieg's Campaign Tried to Have Me Arrested

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 5:57:28 PM

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Reply to molly cruz:   New Content

If Butthole is part of any administration, I will not support that administration.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 4:10:52 AM

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The stupid name calling suggests you have other problems, not the least of which is sexual.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 4:31:49 PM

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Don Smith

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How odd that an article about Sanders' electability doesn't mention the words "socialist", "socialism" or "radical." (I like Sanders and don't think he's any of those!)

Submitted on Sunday, Feb 9, 2020 at 9:15:09 PM

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molly cruz

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As for Socialism, that cat's out of the bag, no? People seem to have it inextricably tied to Communism, but in general we are a social democracy right? Just like most European countries?

Submitted on Sunday, Feb 9, 2020 at 10:05:14 PM

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Electablity??

Why don't people talk about Loseablity?

Everyone has it, except Bernie.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 5:01:14 PM

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molly cruz

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He has his charm, although the"Robin Hood" routine is simplistic and overdone. I'd cut the military budget in half instead of "deep pocketing" the rich. If everyone paid ten percent, no loopholes, no deductions, tax fraud would end, as would cash flight, CPA's would have to find other work, but the total haul of income tax payments, as "corporations are people" please recall, so this goes for them too, would double. Just move that decimal point one place to the left, folks. It's simple and fair and profitable; once we stop kidding anyone that we have real enemies planning to attack at any moment, or that stinking up the world with more radiation makes any sense at all. With my plan, somebody earning a hundred thousand a year would pay ten thousand. If they earn a million; a hundred thousand and so on. Don't you think that's enough? I do.

Submitted on Monday, Feb 10, 2020 at 6:45:06 PM

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Reply to molly cruz:   New Content

"I'd cut the military budget in half instead of "deep pocketing" the rich. If everyone paid ten percent, no loopholes, no deductions, tax fraud would end, as would cash flight..." Exactly. And here I absolutely, fully agree with you! But if that's your goal, Molly, you're barking up the wrong tree. The only candidate willing to claw back trillions from MIC to fix the broken nation without raising taxes is Gabbard. And possibly whoever has the foresight to make her VP if she doesn't go third party.

Submitted on Tuesday, Feb 11, 2020 at 6:50:25 AM

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molly cruz

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I think she's a class act myself, besides being "a pearl of a girl." But except for pissing on a few politicians now and then, barking up anything isn't my game. It has occurred to me that VP might be her fate as well. It has also occurred to me that simplifying the tax code must have its day, rather than the serpentine mode of confusion with which we are faced like it made some sense, besides making it easier to fleece people.

And fond as I am of Bernie's foreign policy concepts, like defending the Palestinians; he's beating the "fair share" thing to death, letting the dogs of taxation loose while ignoring the unchained war mongers, now that we've whipped the Middle East into a froth through which it's mighty hard to see; and behind which we're tromping all over South America like it's our playground, in the name of fighting the new branded evil "Socialism".

All my life I've been suspicious of the cloud of "History", the thing, if unobserved we are "doomed to repeat"...while it has always seemed to he that History itself is so rigged, that we are compelled to repeat it by its own insistence, "Precedent"; the justification for just about anything.

Submitted on Tuesday, Feb 11, 2020 at 8:58:14 AM

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