The Michigan Chronicle
By Robert Weiner and Evan Baumel
Back in February, President Obama told the Democratic Governors Association, "We know how to win national elections, but all too often, it's during these midterms where we end up getting ourselves into trouble." Indeed, most pundits believe Democrats will lose their majority in the Senate and suffer losses in the House in a "wave election." Republicans need to secure six more Senate seats to control Congress, and three of these seats are nearly assured, according to Politico's latest projections. One of the hopeful key races for Democrats is the pivotal Michigan US Senate election, with Rep. Gary Peters holding a lead over his Republican opponent Terri Land.
While the national odds have improved since Kansas Democratic candidate Chad Taylor dropped out September 3 to help Independent Greg Orman beat incumbent Senator Pat Roberts, the Democrats still face an uphill national battle. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight recently estimated that Democrats have only a 36.6% chance of keeping the Senate; now it's slightly better. Analysts cite rising discontent about President Obama's foreign policy, the new health care law, and a perceived lackluster economic recovery.
The President did not help himself or his party by his "no strategy yet" comment about fighting ISIS in Syria. However, we should remember that FDR waited nearly a year before we entered World War II, despite the British calls for full American intervention, and three years for assaults to free the concentration camps where 11 million souls were killed in the Holocaust, including over 1.5 million children. After we entered and won, few remember we delayed getting in.
One reason why Republicans have an edge in this election is effective campaign messages. It is easier to be critical than to put out a positive strategy. Yet in 1993, Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey did just that by introducing the "Contract With America," a ten-point plan. In 1994, they gained 60 House seats and Republicans won both the House and Senate.
We've taken the liberty of developing a message to help Democrats with their own persuasive Ten Point Plan in 2014:
1) Since his first ISIS statement, President Obama has now released a strong, cohesive strategy to "degrade and destroy" ISIS and gave a major address. He said that "Their horrific acts only unite us as a country" and "Justice will be served." Vice President Biden has also declared, "We will follow them to the gates of hell until they are brought to justice."
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2) Democrats have protected Medicare and Social Security from cuts, while Republicans have openly discussed partially privatizing these essential government programs that are actually solvent for years. This program has enough resources to run self-sufficiently until 2033. In addition, Medicare has added 10 years of solvency thanks to the Affordable Care Act. Even if these programs later develop a budget shortfall, it's important to fund them for future generations.
3) Health care inflation decreased from 6% to 1% since the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010, and the number of uninsured has been cut by 25-60% in states that adopted the law's new Medicaid option paid by the federal government. The GOP has not laid out a clear alternative other than a full repeal of the benefits or repeating passage of the same measures Democrats have enacted.
4) Republicans lose support among women when they block Democratic-supported women's equal pay and health choice, and instead close clinics and push forced transvaginal ultrasound body invasions.
5) The Democrats are barnstorming to increase the minimum wage, to the chagrin of the Republican counterparts. It's worth about 1/3 less today than 1968 in real dollars, according to Pew Research. Real wages have been flat for the middle class for 30 years.
6) Unemployment has been cut from 10% to 6% and the budget deficit has actually fallen by half since Obama took office. If Republicans ended their blockade of crucial jobs bills, more workers paying taxes would cut both measuring sticks even more. According to the Congressional Budget Office and the Library of Congress, tax breaks for the rich (a common conservative strategy for a balanced budget) have one-fifth of the same effect as direct jobs programs. CBO and CRS also estimate that the Administration's infrastructure jobs bill would reduce unemployment by a full percentage point and add a million jobs.
7) Democrats support a comprehensive immigration bill already passed in the Senate, while House Republicans oppose its passage. Since Obama supported the Senate bill and already tripled border security personnel, Democrats have taken away Republican arguments.
8) The Stimulus Act, combined with the Federal Reserve's intervention, saved American business from the crash, and President Obama made a point of saving the American automobile industry. Republicans voted against the Stimulus and then took credit for bringing government funds to their districts -- and said, "Let Detroit go bankrupt."
9) Obama took out Osama bin Laden, pure and simple. While Romney said, "Any President would have done the same," remember that Bush had the opportunity to catch Osama at Tora Bora. Instead, he handed the intelligence over to the Afghanis and Pakistanis, who blundered or squealed it to al Qaeda. Obama kept the operation private with our Navy Seals, and it worked.
10) The American people are frustrated with the President and Congress, and the GOP seems intent to increase this bitter sentiment. Democrats including Peters must engineer a masterful ground game as the party did in recent Presidential and Senate campaigns. If Democrats persuade independents to vote, and encourage minorities and women to go to the polls to show their anger at voter suppression's election-rigging and dismay at opponents' opposition to Obamacare's benefits, women's health choices, and immigration reform, they have a chance of weathering this storm.
Robert Weiner is a former White House spokesman and former senior staff for Cong. John Conyers, Charles Rangel, Claude Pepper, Ed Koch, and Sen. Ted Kennedy. He wrote the epilogue to Bankole Thompson's book, "Obama and Christian Loyalty." Evan Baumel is senior policy analyst for Robert Weiner Associates and author of "Broken Mast: Changing Course for the Capitalist Ship."
NATIONAL PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND ISSUES STRATEGIST
Bob Weiner, a national issues and public affairs strategist, has been spokesman for and directed the public affairs offices of White House Drug Czar and Four Star General Barry (more...