Bush-41's October Surprise Denials

A recently discovered lecture by the late British traitor Kim Philby contains a lesson that may help explain how George H.W. Bush could bluff and bluster his way past mounting evidence that he and other Republicans conspired in 1980 to block release of 52 U.S. hostages in Iran and thus ensure Ronald Reagan's election, an alleged gambit that bordered on treason itself.

In a speech in East Berlin in 1981 -- just aired by the BBC -- the Soviet double-agent Philby explained that for someone like himself born into what he called "the ruling class of the British Empire," it was easy to simply "deny everything." When evidence was presented against him, he simply had to keep his nerve and assert that it was all bogus. With his powerful connections, he knew that few would dare challenge him.

"Because I was born into the British governing class, because I knew a lot of people of an influential standing, I knew that they [his colleagues in Britain's MI-6 spy agency] would never get too tough with me," Philby told members of East Germany's Stasi. "They'd never try to beat me up or knock me around, because if they had been proved wrong afterwards, I could have made a tremendous scandal."

That's why growing evidence and deepening suspicions of Philby's treachery slid by while he continued spying for the Soviet Union. He finally disappeared in January 1961 and popped up several months later in Moscow, where he lived until his death in 1988.

Though the circumstances are obviously quite different, Philby's recognition that his patrician birth and his powerful connections gave him extraordinary protections could apply to George H.W. Bush and his forceful denials of any role in the Iran-Contra scandal -- he falsely claimed to be "out of the loop" -- and also the October Surprise issue, whether the Reagan-Bush dealings with Iran began in 1980 with the obstruction of President Jimmy Carter's negotiations to free 52 U.S. Embassy hostages seized by Iranian radicals on Nov. 4, 1979.

Carter's failure to secure the hostages' release before the U.S. election, which fell exactly one year later, doomed his reelection chances and cleared the way for Reagan and the Republicans to gain control of both the White House and the Senate. The hostages were only released after Reagan was sworn in as President on Jan. 20, 1981, and as Bush became Vice President.

President Ronald Reagan, delivering his Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 1981.
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We now know that soon after the Reagan-Bush inauguration, clandestine U.S.-approved arms shipments were soon making their way to Iran through Israel. An Argentine plane carrying one of the shipments crashed in July 1981 but the incriminating circumstances were covered up by Reagan's State Department, according to then-Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East Nicholas Veliotes, who traced the origins of the arms deal back to the 1980 campaign.

This hard-to-believe reality -- that the tough-guy Reagan-Bush administration was secretly shipping weapons to Iran after Tehran's mullahs had humiliated the United States with the hostage crisis -- remained a topic for only occasional Washington rumors until November 1986 when a Beirut newspaper published the first article describing one clandestine shipment. That story soon expanded into the Iran-Contra Affair because some of the arm sales profits were diverted to the U.S.-backed Nicaraguan Contra rebels.

For Bush, the emergence of this damaging scandal, which could have denied him his own shot at the White House, was time to test out his ability to "deny everything." So, he denied knowing that the White House had been secretly running a Contra resupply operation in defiance of Congress, even though his office and top aides were in the middle of everything. Regarding the Iran arms deals, Bush insisted publicly he was "out of the loop."

Behind closed doors where he ran the risk of perjury charges, Bush was more forthcoming. For instance, in non-public testimony to the FBI and the Iran-Contra prosecutor, "Bush acknowledged that he was regularly informed of events connected with the Iran arms sales." [See Special Prosecutor's Final Iran-Contra Report, p. 473]

British double-agent Kim Philby, who spied for the Soviet Union and fled to Moscow in 1961.
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But Bush's public "out of the loop" storyline, more or less, held up going into the 1988 presidential election. The one time when he was directly challenged with detailed Iran-Contra questions was in a live, on-air confrontation with CBS News anchor Dan Rather on Jan. 25, 1988.

Instead of engaging in a straightforward discussion, Bush went on the offensive, lashing out at Rather for allegedly ambushing him with unexpected questions. Bush also recalled an embarrassing episode when Rather left his anchor chair vacant not anticipating the end of a tennis match which was preempting the news.

"How would you like it if I judged your career by those seven minutes when you walked off the set in New York?" Bush asked testily. "How would you like that?"