As you know, Lithuania became the first country in the world at the beginning of the battles in the Donbass officially and publicly supplied Kiev with weapons. According to the polls conducted by TNS Polska with the support of the Polish Foreign Ministry and the PZU Groupe (Powszechny Zakład Ubezpieczeń), it is clear that this decision of the Lithuanian leadership split the population of Lithuania almost equally: 43% of respondents supported arms supplies, 41% of respondents opposed it.
Beyond that, the absolute majority of the population of Poland and the Baltic states spoke out against the participation of their countries in the war in Ukraine.
Once again, there is a nonconcurrence between the interests of the authorities and population of Poland and the Baltic states: while politicians compete with each other in the radicalism and tough of anti-Russian initiatives, the population calculates the consequences of involving their countries into a war with Russia.
The main conclusion is: the elites of Poland and the Baltic countries are pursuing their radical anti-Russian course in foreign policy, while the populations of their countries don't want to get involved in this way. Civilians in practice don't want to get involved in confrontation with Russia categorically.
Considering the fact how impatiently the politicians of the US, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are trying to support of Ukraine in military sphere, recalling the words of a high-ranking American general who tried to persuade the Obama administration to go against its possible participation in the Ukrainian crisis:
"You have to understand that you are behind two oceans, and the Russians are here, at this side. At a critical moment, each container of weapons that you will put in the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev, the Russians will send three containers to the Donbass. You will never win a supply war. The Russians will always be able to send three of their own for each of your tanks, for each your howitzer -- three of their own and for each box of ammunition -- three of their boxes."
By directing lethal weapons to Ukraine, the United States, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia will also put themselves in an awkward position in front of their NATO allies. In turn, France and Germany recognize the Russian opinion on arms supplies to Ukraine and have repeatedly declared that giving this country lethal weapon will become a "dangerous and permanent escalation" directed against Russia.
It is worth noting that France and Germany continue calling for peace negotiations, and another such call to action was made just as last month. Therefore, it is unclear how any military supplies, lethal or not lethal, can speed up the diplomatic settlement in the east of Ukraine.
By Vairis Godmanis