For reasons no one seems to understand, pollsters have cut back decisively on their national and state Democratic polls since early December despite the fact that the early state primaries are fast approaching. In New Hampshire. For example, there had been only one poll in December, and that one was in the field early on from December 3rd to December 8th. That compares with five New Hampshire polls in November. The New Hampshire polls showed a tight four-way race in November and December with Pete Buttigieg marginally ahead. For the most part the mainstream media was informing us that Buttigieg was ahead in New Hampshire, but with the most recent polling being nearly a month old it was anybody's guess who was truly ahead in New Hampshire.
CBS/You Gov just released new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. It is important to note that both polls weight their results against 2016 presidential turnout. 2016 turnout was among the lowest ever in a presidential election, particularly among younger voters. 2018 was among the highest ever in a non-presidential election, and relative to past elections young voters increased their turnout by the largest percentage. 2020 is expected to be a high turnout election, especially among the younger voters. This suggests that the weighting in these polls will work to the disadvantage of Bernie Sanders who does particularly well among the young. It seems likely that Sanders is doing even better than these polls suggest, and they suggest that he is doing very well indeed. I do not believe in putting too much stock in a single poll, though the mainstream media does that with alarming frequency. But this poll does reset the table. Hopefully there will be many more in the coming weeks to help us determine the true shape of the race.
There is a lot to digest in this poll, so I will limit this article to New Hampshire. An Iowa analysis will follow shortly.
Sanders: 27%, #1
Biden: 25%, #2
Warren: 18%, #3
Buttigieg: 13%, #4
Klobuchar: 7%, #5
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