The Obama Administration should have anticipated the mid-term election disaster. They had ample warning but failed to take counter measures. If a similar result is to be avoided in 2012, if Obama is to prevail in the Presidential election, Democrats have to absorb four critical lessons.
At the onset of the Obama Administration, Republicans began their campaign to win the mid-term elections by opposing every Presidential initiative. (In January of 2009, House Republicans unanimously voted against the stimulus package even though there was huge national support for it.) Obama did not appear to understand the dogmatic nature of Republican opposition. As a result he lost time, and allies, trying to obtain GOP support.
In August, Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne observed that Obama seemed to shy away from politicking and said, "In a democracy, separating governing from "politicking' is impossible."
As a consequence of the President's indifference about politicking, the 2010 Democratic campaign was incoherent and uncoordinated. One seasoned political operative termed it "political malpractice."
Republicans talked in terms of themes "restore freedom," "give control of government back to the people" while Democrats talked about policies, many of which were incomprehensible to the average voter. Over the course of the last 21 months, the GOP implanted a big lie in the American consciousness: the Obama Administration caused the recession and Democrats favored "bailouts" because they were aligned with Wall Street. Dems didn't counter this.
The dominant 2010 Democratic message was, "Let's not go back to the Bush era." The subliminal content was: "We don't have anything positive to say."
The cornerstone message must be simple . At the core of the Democratic political context should be a single compelling idea.
The electorate's big concern is jobs. The Republicans had a simple response: "Lower taxes and fewer regulations create jobs." The Democratic response was "Trust us. We're not the Republicans."
The Obama Administration may have a straightforward plan that will fix the economy and create jobs, but no one outside the White House knows what it is.
Democrats must keep faith with their base. Just before the election, the NEW YORK TIMES ran a front-page article "Obama Coalition is Fraying, Poll Finds". Their poll reported that key groups, like White Women, were planning to vote for Republicans. If the reporters had dug deeper, they would have found a bigger story: the Obama Administration had managed to piss off their key supporters, both individuals and groups. This was the guts of the "enthusiasm gap;" Obama hadn't just lost White Women, he'd shortchanged them at best they felt disappointed, at worst betrayed.
In one progressive sector after another, the Obama Administration reneged on promises or gave up hard-earned progressive gains, all in the name of securing Republican votes that never materialized. It made many Democrats wonder if they could trust their President, their leader.
Searching for Superman? In addition to learning these four lessons, Democrats have to decide what to do about Barack Obama.