The United Nations mediator-in-chief is now convinced that both Iran and Iraq support his new political transition plan for Damascus, which is essentially his remixed April 12 former plan, duly bombed by the collection of opportunist exiles known as the Syrian National Council (SNC).
A report here delightfully details the meeting in Damascus earlier this week between Annan and Assad. As in any decent show, the best lines pop up before the credits roll:
Annan - How long do you think this crisis will continue?Kofi Powers to the rescue?
Assad - As long as the [...] regime funds it.
Annan - Do you think they are behind all the funding?
Assad - They are behind many things that happen in our region. They believe they will be able to lead the whole Arab world today and in the future.
Annan - But it seems to me that they lack the population needed for such an ambition.
Not only Annan and Assad, everyone knows that the regime in question is Qatar. And that's why the SNC refused to abide by the ceasefire decided by the previous Annan plan -- and will do the same with this one. They know that Qatar - and Saudi Arabia -- will keep weaponizing the "rebels," be they defectors, affiliated with the SNC or not, members of different strands of the Not-so-Free Syrian Army, or Salafi-jihadi mercenaries once again gleefully collaborating with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
So once again the SNC is torpedoing Kofi "Powers" Annan and his political transition even before the fact. Not to mention they have managed to totally alienate Moscow, whose chief interest is to be the broker of a Syrian transitional government. Moscow has drafted a resolution to extend a UN mission in Syria for three months, shifting from monitoring a truce nobody respects to working on a political transition.
Annan's so-called six-point plan implies an immediate ceasefire (which won't be respected by the SNC and the FSA); withdrawal of heavy weapons and military forces from villages and cities; access for humanitarian aid and journalists; and the set-up of a political transition mechanism.
Once again, this "political transition" itself, based on "mutual consent" -- decided in Geneva on June 30 -- already departs from extremely shaky ground. For Washington, "mutual consent" means Assad should go. For Moscow, "mutual consent" means the Assad system is part of the negotiation.
Yet the Syrian opposition as embodied by the SNC and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) -- duly supported by US Secretary of State Hillary "We came, we saw, he died" Clinton and her "Friends of Syria" gang -- keep screaming out loud; damn those negotiations; we want power and we want it now. How democratic is that?
You say you want a revolution
By now, Kofi Powers should have stepped up his game and used some silky intimidating tactics against these people; after all his reputation is on the line. It won't happen.
Now that "democraship" is on the ascendancy (see Welcome to 'democraship', Asia Times Online, Jul 4, 2012), the menu is indeed tasty. In Egypt, the Orwellian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces launched a coup immediately before presidential elections. In Yemen, the House of Saud installed its preferred replacement for Abdul Saleh after a sort of white coup.
Considering that NATO and the "Friends of Syria" are totally inept/incapable of mounting such a coup, and considering the elites at the top have not splintered, the only way out would be a Hosni Mubarak-style solution, where the head of the snake is cut off even as the snake grows new, Hydra-style mini-heads.