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9/11 - A FOURTH TURNING PERSPECTIVE

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The four turnings comprise a quaternal social cycle of growth, maturation, entropy, and death (and rebirth). In a spring like High, a society fortifies and builds and converges in an era of promise. In a summer like Awakening, it dreams and plays and exults in an era of euphoria. In an autumnal Unraveling, it harvests and consumes and diverges in an era of anxiety. In a hibernal Crisis, it focuses and struggles and sacrifices in an era of survival. When the saeculum is in motion, therefore, no long human lifetime can go by without a society confronting its deepest spiritual and worldly needs. -The Fourth Turning

File:National Park Service 9-11 Statue of Liberty and WTC fire.jpg File:Wtc-2004-memorial.jpg

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Nine years after the attack on the World Trade Center the mood of the country hastransformed dramatically. I watched the horror on a TV in a conference room at work with my colleagues. I remember being in a daze for a few days after the attack. When it becameunambiguous that Osama bin Laden masterminded the attacks and was being protected by the Taliban in Afghanistan, I wanted justice. The entire world rallied around the US. There was worldwide support for the United States' right to attack Afghanistan and kill the perpetrators.

In the days immediately following the attacks,there were many memorials and vigilsaround the world. In addition, pictures were placed all overGround Zero.A witness described being unable to "get away from faces of innocent victims who were killed. Their pictures are everywhere, on phone booths, street lights, walls of subway stations. Everything reminded me of a huge funeral, people quiet and sad, but also very nice. Before, New York gave me a cold feeling; now people were reaching out to help each other."

There was a feeling of unity in the country for a brief shining moment. If the year had been 2007, rather than 2001, that unity may have been sustained. Anyone who had read Strauss & Howe's 1997 book The Fourth Turning waslikely trying to figure out if the 9/11 attacks were the trigger for the Fourth Turning. But it was too soon. As Strauss & Howe relate in the book, a turning can be sudden or subtle:

"The gateway to a new turning can be obvious and dramatic (like the 1929 Stock Crash) or subtle and gradual (like 1984's Morning in America). It usually occurs two to five years after a new generation of children starts being born. The tight link between turning gateways and generational boundaries enables each archetype to fill an entire phase-of-life just as the mood of an old turning grows stale and feels ripe for replacement with something new."

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Unraveling Culture

The Unraveling, which had begun in 1984, had not run its course by September 11, 2001. Turnings generally last for 20 to 25 years. In 2001, we were only 17 years into the Unraveling. The mood of the country had not developed to the point where a consensus could be built to addressa national Crisis. We had been attacked, but our very existence as a nationhad not been threatened. The 9/11 attacks heightened the feeling of anxiety in the country and put us on the pathtowards a great Crisis. Strauss & Howe explained the phases of an Unraveling in the book:

"An UNRAVELING begins as a society-wide embrace of the liberating cultural forces set loose by the Awakening. People have had their fill of spiritual rebirth, moral protest, and lifestyle experimentation. Content with what they have become individually, they vigorously assert an ethos of pragmatism, self-reliance, laissez faire, and national (or sectional or ethnic) chauvinism.

While personal satisfaction is high, public trust ebbs amid a fragmenting culture, harsh debates over values, and weakening civic habits. The sense of guilt (which rewards principle and individuality) reaches its zenith. As moral debates brew, the big public arguments are over ends, not means. Decisive public action becomes very difficult, as community problems are deferred. Wars are fought with moral fervor but without consensus or follow-through.

Eventually, cynical alienation hardens into a brooding pessimism. During a High, obliging individuals serve a purposeful society, and even bad people get harnessed to socially constructive tasks; during an Unraveling, an obliging society serves purposeful individuals, and even good people find it hard to connect with their community. The approaching specter of public disaster ultimately elicits a mix of paralysis and apathy that would have been unthinkable half a saeculum earlier. People can now feel, but collectively can no longer do." -The Fourth Turning

The Clinton years were divisive and cynical. You knew the country was adrift, but no one could harness the power of therealm to take on theimpending challenges. The nationdivided into Blue states and Red States. The Moral Majority raged against the Godlessness of the country. The 2000 Presidential election was an example of a country deeply divided, fragmented and unable to agree on anything. The election was essentially a draw, and a partisan Supreme Court picked the winner. It seemed like the country was divided as never before. But, a student of history would have recognized the same issues,dilemmas and foul mood in the 1760s, 1850s and 1920s. Strauss and Howe documented the prior Unravelings in US history:

"The mood of the current Culture Wars era seems new to nearly every living American but is not new to history. Around World War I, America steeped in reform and fundamentalism amidst a floodtide of crime, alcohol, immigration, political corruption, and circus trials. The 1850s likewise simmered with moral righteousness, shortening tempers, and multiplying "mavericks." It was a decade, says historian David Donald, in which "the authority of all government in America was at a low point." Entering the 1760s, the colonies felt rejuvenated in spirit but reeled from violence, mobs, insurrections, and paranoia over the corruption of official authority." -The Fourth Turning

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The country went to war with a moral fervor, whichquickly dissipated. There was no follow through, as bin Laden was allowed to escape. The appearance of unity in the country was wiped away with the invasion of Iraq under false pretenses. Americans became more cynical after 9/11. Instead of addressing the visible financialcatastropheset in motion bypolitical promises made decades ago, Americans deluded themselves with visions of faux wealth created by the Federal Reserve inflating the largest bubble in history. President Bush did not demand shared sacrifice after 9/11. He instructed the American people to defeat the terrorists byleasing a Mercedes SUV; buying a 6,000 sq ft McMansion with 10 rooms, granite countertops, Jacuzzis, and a home theater, financed with 0% down; and taking yourultimate dream vacation in the Caribbeanpaid for with one of your 10 credit cards.

While Americans binged on credit and ignored the disastrous future that awaited them with theapproaching Fourth Turning, a brooding pessimism began toblanket the country. A national paralysis overtook thepopulace regardingvital issues. The popping of the housing bubble from 2006 through 2008 revealed massive fraud on the part of Wall Street bankers; corrupt politicians, bought off by corporations, in Washington DC; inept bungling regulators; millions of morons wanting to be led astray; and a Federal Reserve that provided the cheap credit to fuel the mass delusion. The complete meltdown of the financial system in September 2008 will be viewed as the catalyst for the current Fourth Turning. The transition from Unraveling to Crisis has transpired.

Crisis Deepening

"A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice." -The Fourth Turning

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James Quinn is a senior director of strategic planning for a major university. James has held financial positions with a retailer, homebuilder and university in his 22-year career. Those positions included treasurer, controller, and head of (more...)
 

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