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On March 8, the Atlantic magazine published an Iran War Clock. Set at 10 minutes to midnight, it said odds are even that Washington and/or Israel will attack. A so-called panel of experts was chosen to predict future risks.
They include a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran, a Council on Foreign Relations senior vice president, a Deputy Head of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, Haaretz's military correspondent, an anti-Iranian front group head, and others like them.
Independent analysts were largely excluded. Names chosen include:
Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Barry Rubin, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright.
If no chance for war exists, the clock's set at 20 minutes to midnight. It moves closer by one minute increments for each added 5% risk. A 10% chance sets it at 18 minutes to midnight, five minutes before for 75%, and 10 minutes as now for 48%.
Claiming impartially, it calls its assessment a collective "gut-check feeling." In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock moved to five minutes to midnight. It was its first change since early 2010. In a statement it said at the time:
"Two years ago, it appeared that world leaders might address the truly global threats that we face. In many cases, that trend has not continued or been reversed."
Given all now ongoing, risks appear greater. Rely on reputable analysts to assess what's coming. Currently there's good cause for alarm.
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