Frederic Wehrey, Senior Associate in Carnegie's Middle East Program, weighs in this way:
Bahrain is wracked by simmering violence and social divisions, and the government appears unwilling to enact substantial political forces--the Shia opposition, Sunni Islamists, and the ruling Sunni Al Khalifa family--are paralyzed by internal fissures with more militant idealists overtaking pragmatists. This is a crucial test of the United States' ability to balance the need for political reform with long-standing strategic interests and military partnerships.
" Unable to produce meaningful reforms through dialogue or political participation, the mainstream Shia opposition represented by Al Wefaq is losing popular support.
" The youth are rising up. The February 14 Youth Coalition--a leaderless network formed in the early days of Bahrain's uprising--is winning over some of Al Wefaq's supporters. It has rejected dialogue with the regime, called for the creation of a republic, and confronted security forces with sporadic violence.
" A hardline faction of the Al Khalifa family, led by the royal court minister and the commander of the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF), is drowning out more moderate voices.
" Class-based Sunni anger with the regime is rising. Hardline royal factions have attempted to co-opt this dissent and redirect it against the Shia--a losing strategy that is stoking sectarianism in Bahraini society.
" Anti-Americanism is growing among both hardline Sunni Islamists and rejectionist Shia elements. This anti-Americanism coupled with the entrenched regime's apparent intent to ignore calls for deep reform risks damaging American legitimacy and jeopardizing U.S. assets and people.
So the deeply divided factions will continue to demand justice and equity, and have demonstrated more than enough courage to make life extremely difficult for all the players. It may be especially difficult for the U.S., which pro-democracy forces are hoping will advocate quietly, behind-the curtain, for an end to discrimination.
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