"SP": - And yet you have the Ukrainian military forces trying to make blitzkrieg after summer defeats?
- Yes. Ukraine has lost only a few percent of its military equipment, which is surprising. Despite the fact that it is possible to supply military equipment to Ukraine from Eastern Europe. Direct evidence of this resupply is lacking, but there are indirect indications of it.
All summer, the Ukrainian army stupidly pressed mass. Given the limitations of militia forces for such a war in Kiev and more resources for the year will suffice. Superiority in manpower and technology is still behind Kiev.
"SP": - If the Ukrainian offensive begins, how successfully will it develop?
- This will largely depend on Russia. Our government does not want this war resumed with renewed vigor. And it doesn't want to get involved in the fighting. But for Russia to allow defeat of the militias has also become impossible.
In July and August it is Russia that prevented the final defeat of the militias. They are not enough people who can master military equipment. Not to mention the fact that their formation is still a lot of mess. However, in the Ukrainian army, it's even more the case.
"SP": - Will the chances Novorossia survive if Donetsk is captured?
- Reduction of the territory for militias would in any case be disastrous for them. They control the minimum of territory that they need. If you pull back for a few more tens of kilometers, just nowhere remains to expand the offensive. Yes, and economic potential of the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics in this case would be completely undermined.
Director, Center for Strategic Situation, Ivan Konovalov, believes that successful Blitzkrieg against New Russia is no longer possible.
- Ukrainian army was unable to cope with a much weaker militias.
The report of the agency "New Russia" is not very clear on what the "three armored fist" is: a 3 armored division? But now there is no way for Ukraine to create a full-fledged three armored divisions. And it is not possible even in military technology, and trained crews. Who will manage the tanks? Or call on foreign mercenaries? I doubt it. It's too expensive. And the number of mercenaries in the world is limited.
However, even when creating a big advantage in manpower and equipment, to take Donetsk, or rather a huge part of Donetsk, in just a few days is not possible. It is very difficult for the military offensive in such a territory. There are woods, hills, piles, very dense buildings, a lot of tracks.
We remember two months ago Ukrainian troops were sent into battle all combat-ready, but were not able to take Donetsk. How do they succeed now? The more so because the number of militia volunteers is constantly growing. They are now tens of thousands. And the light weapons they have are decent. And armor is enough. I witnessed how they are at one of the factories of Donetsk repairing armored [enemy] vehicles that were brought from the battlefield.
"SP": - Based on the information agency "New Russia", Kiev bet on surprise. Militia, according to the author, "never under any circumstances will we bombard residential areas of Donetsk ... Thus our fighters will be limited to a set of tools for the destruction of Ukrainian punitive forces if they gain a foothold in the residential areas of Donetsk" ...
- The position of the militia is clear - to try as much as possible to avoid the shelling of settlements, even if there are Ukrainian troops.
However, to really keep residential areas, you need a well-trained infantry. And here in Kiev there is none. The armored column breakthrough tactics were employed by the Ukrainian army to begin with. And what did it ultimately lead to? To infinity of "fired boilers." If the next tank column tries to break through to the center of Donetsk without normal infantry support, it will just get burned even without the use of heavy weapons and "Grad" from the defenders.
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