Russia is in a bit of a bind here, but I hardly see it as being at fault when the mainstream political elite in the West is punishing it when it is perceived as having taken advantage of the situation in Ukraine, and continuing to punish it with the threat of sanctions when it actually goes ahead and encourages dialogue with the new Ukrainian president.
I have to ask myself, what is the incentive? What is the carrot for Putin to actually assist in the process if at every turn he is being rewarded with more sanctions?
RICHARD SAKWA: In that list of his unwanted friends, you could have added Patrick Buchanan, a traditional conservative in the United States who has spoken quite warmly.
What we do see is that there are two big seismic shifts going on. We've seen the Euro Parliament elections, which are absolutely shocking across the board. In the United Kingdom, in France and some other countries, for the first time in some hundred years you've got neither conservatives nor the Labour Party becoming the top party. [For more on the European Parliament elections, check out this panel discussion, which took place before the elections, moderated by Speedie.]
It's an absolutely earthquake internally, but this has only reflected, if you like, the larger geopolitical tensions externally.
Russia finds itself in the eye of the vortex. Whether it likes it or not, it's part of something bigger that's going on.
The traditional stereotype thinking, the aggressive talk of what we could call the McCainiacs, allied with some of the irresponsible leaders within the European Union--I'm talking about Carl Bildt and Radek Sikorski and others--basically, they've treated Russia as an enemy.
Putin has so far, hopefully, been able to avoid Russia becoming an enemy, but it's certainly becoming an awkward customer, because it's actually saying things that needed to be said. As you say, it's been relatively trying to be constructive now over Ukraine. It's no good externalizing problems. It's part of the solution. It's not just part of the problem.
Once the West can begin to understand that, to accept Russia as a genuine political interlocutor, not as some sort simpleton idea of punishing it, sanctioning it, whipping it, excluding it, dividing lines in Europe. All of this is insane talk. We've really got to begin to move beyond that.
DAVID SPEEDIE: As a more reasonable American voice than Patrick Buchanan, the great statesman Henry Kissinger, said recently, "Demonizing Putin is not a policy."
On that note, we must end. I want to thank Richard Sakwa and Nicolai Petro for joining us from Odessa in Ukraine on our latest Ethics in Security Bulletin. I wish you both well. We'll be doubtless calling you again as this reaches some kind of denouement, Nicolai and Richard. Again, thank you for being with us today.
NICOLAI PETRO: Thank you.
RICHARD SAKWA: Thank you.
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