China and Russia have replaced subjugated Iraq in the ranks of remaining "axis of evil" members Iran and North Korea.
Blair's report asserted that Russia "may continue to seek avenues for reasserting power and influence in ways that complicate U.S. interests." A paraphrase of the document said of "China, which trades regularly with the United States and owns billions of its national debt," that "Beijing competes for the same resources the United States needs, and is in the process of rapidly modernizing its military." [32]
In 2006 an article appeared in Foreign Affairs, the magazine of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, called "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy," coauthored by Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, which explored in the frankest manner how the U.S. could deal with its Chinese and Russian "challengers."
As the piece's title indicates, the focus is on nuclear weapons and America's superiority in regards to them.
Its basic contention is summarized in this paragraph:
"For four decades, relations among the major nuclear powers have been shaped by their common vulnerability, a condition known as mutual assured destruction. But with the U.S. arsenal growing rapidly while Russia's decays and China's stays small, the era of MAD is ending - and the era of U.S. nuclear primacy has begun." [33]
That appraisal inevitably led to the conclusion that "It will probably soon be possible for the United States to destroy the long-range nuclear arsenals of Russia or China with a first strike."
The authors examine with coldblooded detachment comparative advancements in each of the U.S.'s triad of nuclear weapons delivery systems - ground-based missile, air and submarine - and how in all three instances Washington could launch crippling first strikes on China and Russia alike.
For example, they state "The U.S. Air Force has finished equipping its B-52 bombers with nuclear-armed cruise missiles, which are probably invisible to Russian and Chinese air-defense radar. And the air force has also enhanced the avionics on its B-2 stealth bombers to permit them to fly at extremely low altitudes in order to avoid even the most sophisticated radar."
And they list both nation's vulnerabilities in an almost gleeful manner:
"The more Russia's nuclear arsenal shrinks, the easier it will become for the United States to carry out a first strike.
"The real U.S. war plan may call for first targeting Russia's command and control, sabotaging Russia's radar stations, or taking other preemptive measures - all of which would make the actual U.S. force far more lethal than our model assumes.
"According to our model, such a simplified surprise attack would have a good chance of destroying every Russian bomber base, submarine, and ICBM.
"China's nuclear arsenal is even more vulnerable to a U.S. attack. A U.S. first strike could succeed whether it was launched as a surprise or in the midst of a crisis during a Chinese alert. China has a limited strategic nuclear arsenal.
"According to unclassified U.S. government assessments, China's entire intercontinental nuclear arsenal consists of 18 stationary single-warhead ICBMs."
To confirm that their study is indicative of not only their own conviction, the authors add that "The improvements to the U.S. nuclear arsenal offer evidence that the United States is actively seeking primacy...The current and future U.S. nuclear force, in other words, seems designed to carry out a preemptive disarming strike against Russia or China.
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