The Israeli military and intelligence programs, publicly centered around preparations for an attack on Iran, appear to be designed to augment Israel's pressure on the U.S. to attack Iran instead as well as to cover secret preparations for a possible false flag attack on U.S. interests by Israel to be blamed on Iran. The clear intent is to provoke an immediate shooting war between the U.S. and Iran.
An attack on Iran by Israel itself is unlikely, because it would have limited impact on Iran's nuclear program, military forces, and national infrastructure, while potentially resulting in substantial Israeli naval and air force losses, and therefore ultimately threatening Israel's political establishment. Clearly, Israel wants to avoid war against its most substantial opponents, Egypt or Iran, when its current territorial interests can be satisfied by attacking its immediate, less capable abutters Lebanon and Syria, especially if Iran is less able to assist them. Given increasing U.S. military resistance to Israel's efforts as well as many elements among the U.S. political and economic establishment opposing a U.S. war with Iran, a false flag attack on U.S. interests may be Israel's last, best hope; however, the risks of such an attack, should it be exposed, would create difficulties that even the Israel Lobby would find difficult to contain.
Given Israel's and the Israel Lobby's central role in, and success at, helping start Bush's Iraq War, this effort to start a U.S. - Iran War is considered among the most serious threats to U.S. national security by those who believe such a war both gravely dangerous and manifestly contrary to U.S. national interests.
Likely Future Events
Whether the U.S. will become involved in war with Iran is unclear. What is likely is a set of events or non-events over the next few weeks, indicating the current intensions of the Bush administration and Israeli governments toward Iran and each other.
So what might happen? It seems likely that if Bush is going to start a war with Iran, one would expect the ramp-up PR effort and accompanying threats shortly after the end of August, beginning with complaints about "diplomacy not working", followed by new "evidence" of Iranian nuclear weapons development and perhaps an Iranian hand in killing American troops in Iraq, then building to "final warnings" as well as "last chances to come clean" etc., before hostilities in October. There may be a naval confrontation and some other casus belli, real or contrived. This timing would give McCain the best possible advantage from the bounce expected when the shooting first starts, especially if Obama is blamed for Iran's supposed intransigency. If McCain looks to win, then Bush may wait until after the election to strike; if Obama is ahead or the race is too close to predict, then Bush may strike before the election in the hopes of changing McCain's fortunes.
Among possible war-starting event sequences, would be a limited U.S. attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities near the Iraq border, followed by an Israeli false flag attack on a U.S. vessel, with Bush administration turning a blind eye to evidence of Israeli evolvement, possibly ignoring warnings about such an attack, and then ordering wider ranging attacks on Iran in "defense" of U.S. forces, resulting in a rapid series of escalating military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.
An early indication of such a new PR effort came from Secretary of State Rice, a leading Iraq war advocate. After the U.S. attended a much publicized, single meeting with Iran, Rice charged Iran was not serious, when attending Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns, under her orders, was to say nothing to the Iranian delegation. This ludicrous claim about failed diplomacy is not a good sign. Neither is evidence of a continued build-up of U.S. naval forces in theater. Despite its reputation for secrecy, the Bush administration is much like a giant transparent clock-work, whose movements are often apparent.
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