Ilan Berman and Paul Michael Wihbey, The New Water Politics of the Middle East, Strategic Review, Summer 1999 .
According to the Lebanese Water Ministry, 30-40 percent of the River Dan's water flows into it through underground supplies originating in the Shebaa. "Israel is worried that if Lebanon gains control of the Shebaa, it can then control the flow to the Dan River."
Can there be any doubt that an ongoing and huge Middle East conflict will spill over into the western world?
As Radical Islam grows and flexes its muscles, those who sense that western assistance to Israel has handicapped their battle will react aggressively. Expansions of the scope, boldness, numbers, weapons, destruction, and audacity of present terrorism are probable. New weapons that kill, without danger of a retaliatory kill, are being made available to all. As one example, drones of all sizes are becoming widely produced and prominently marketed at air shows. Iran, an often mentioned future combatant, has an unmanned aerial vehicle that is capable of carrying out bombing missions against ground targets and flying long distances at a high speed.
The final blow hits the western world in its most sensitive feature - the gushing oil that lubricates its economy. Sabotaging oil fields and restricting exports will affect world economies and intensify western involvement in the conflict.
This is the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, and probably, but not necessarily the outcome. Probably, because once the U.S. or Israel contemplate or face war, the battle occurs with no consideration of compromise and with terrible ferocity. Note Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel's constant wars; all combats with no decided outcome except to proceed to the next war. If the present perspective of the conflict changes from: "Will the peace process be harmed if Israel increases its settlements?" to "Can we permit destruction of vast areas of the world because Israel continually increases settlements and control of the West Bank?" then the seriousness will move the world to more accurately evaluate situations and provide direction towards preventing the catastrophe. Just ask some questions.
- Who talks from history and archaeology and who talks from unverified Biblical stories?
- Who has legal right to the land and who bases claims on an incomprehensible "given by God, to me" story?
- What will happen if Israel is forced to depart from its goal of being an expanded "Jewish state?" How many persons in the world will be disappointed? How much of the world, including Jews who sense they are being co-opted by Israel's maneuvers to include them, will feel relief?
- What will happen if Israel is not forced to depart from its goal of being an expanded "Jewish state?" Won't we have mass killings and destruction between those who favor the "Jewish only state" and those of several Arab nations? Won't we have massive mass terrorism, and economic collapse of the western world?
- Why is a relatively small group in a small nation, with designs that come from schemes and spurious dreams, allowed to push the world into catastrophe?
When Jack Nicholson, in the film A Few Good Men, shouted at Tom Cruise, "You can't handle the truth," he might have been speaking to a disillusioned world. He could have added, "and unable to face reality."
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