A Scarier Future
Over many months, AFRICOM repeatedly ignored even basic questions from this reporter about America's sweeping archipelago of bases. In practical terms, that means there is no way to know with complete certainty how many of the more than 60 bases, bunkers, outposts, and areas of access are currently being used by U.S. forces or how many additional sites may exist. What does seem clear is that the number of bases and other sites, however defined, is increasing, mirroring the rise in the number of U.S. troops, special operations deployments, and missions in Africa.
"There's going to be a network of small bases with maybe a couple of medium-altitude, long-endurance drones at each one, so that anywhere on the continent is always within range," says the Oxford Research Group's Richard Reeve when I ask him for a forecast of the future. In many ways, he notes, this has already begun everywhere but in southern Africa, not currently seen by the U.S. military as a high-risk area.
The Obama administration, Reeve explains, has made use of humanitarian rhetoric as a cover for expansion on the continent. He points in particular to the deployment of forces against the Lord's Resistance Army in Central Africa, the build-up of forces near Lake Chad in the effort against Boko Haram, and the post-Benghazi New Normal concept as examples. "But, in practice, what is all of this going to be used for?" he wonders. After all, the enhanced infrastructure and increased capabilities that today may be viewed by the White House as an insurance policy against another Benghazi can easily be repurposed in the future for different types of military interventions.
"Where does this go post-Obama?" Reeve asks rhetorically, noting that the rise of AFRICOM and the proliferation of small outposts have been "in line with the Obama doctrine." He draws attention to the president's embrace of a lighter-footprint brand of warfare, specifically a reliance on Special Operations forces and drones. This may, Reeve adds, just be a prelude to something larger and potentially more dangerous.
"Where would Hillary take this?" he asks, referencing the hawkish Democratic primary frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. "Or any of the Republican potentials?" He points to the George W. Bush administration as an example and raises the question of what it might have done back in the early 2000s if AFRICOM's infrastructure had already been in place. Such a thought experiment, he suggests, could offer clues to what the future might hold now that the continent is dotted with American outposts, drone bases, and compounds for elite teams of Special Operations forces. "I think," Reeve says, "that we could be looking at something a bit scarier in Africa."
Nick Turse is the managing editor of TomDispatch and a fellow at the Nation Institute. A 2014 Izzy Award and American Book Award winner for his book Kill Anything That Moves , his pieces have appeared in the New York Times, the Intercept, the Los Angeles Times , the Nation , and regularly at TomDispatch. His latest book is Tomorrow's Battlefield: U.S. Proxy Wars and Secret Ops in Africa.
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Copyright 2015 Nick Turse
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