Jackie Khoury, a Palestinian analyst for the Israeli Haaretz newspaper, summed up the plan's Gaza elements: "Egypt, which has a vital interest in calming Gaza down because of the territory's impact on Sinai, will play the policeman who restrains Hamas. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and perhaps the United Arab Emirates will pay for the projects, which will be under United Nations auspices."
Israel's efforts to secure compliance from Hamas may be indicated by recent threats to invade Gaza and dissect it in two, reported through veteran Israeli journalist Ron Ben-Yishai. The US has also moved to deepen the crisis in Gaza by withholding payments to UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees. A majority of Gaza's population are refugees dependent on UN handouts.
An advantage for Hamas in agreeing to the Sinai plan is that it would finally be freed of Israeli and Palestinian Authority controls over Gaza. It would be in a better able to sustain its rule, as long as it did not provoke Egyptian ire.Oslo's pacification model
Israel and Washington's plans for Gaza have strong echoes of the "economic pacification" model that was the framework for the Oslo peace process of the late 1990s.
For Israel, Oslo represented a cynical chance to destroy the largely rural economy of the West Bank that Palestinians have depended on for centuries. Israel has long coveted the territory both for its economic potential and its Biblical associations.
Hundreds of Palestinian communities in the West Bank rely on these lands for agriculture, rooting them to historic locations through economic need and tradition. But uprooting the villagers -- forcing them into a handful of Palestinian cities, and clearing the land for Jewish settlers -- required an alternative economic model.
As part of the the Oslo process, Israel began establishing a series of industrial areas -- paid for by international donors -- on the so-called "seam zone" between Israel and the West Bank.
Israeli and international companies were to open factories there, employing cheap Palestinian labor with minimal safeguards. Palestinians would be transformed from farmers with a strong attachment to their lands into a casual labor force concentrated in the cities.
An additional advantage for Israel was that it would make the Palestinians the ultimate "precariat." Should they start demanding a state or even protest for rights, Israel could simply block entry to the industrial areas, allowing hunger to pacify the population.New prison wardens
There is every reason to believe that is now the goal of an Israeli-Trump initiative to gradually relocate Palestinians to Sinai through investment in infrastructure projects.
With the two countries' security interests safely aligned, Israel can then rely on Egypt to pacify the Palestinians of Gaza on its behalf. Under such a scheme, Cairo will have many ways to teach its new workforce of migrant laborers a lesson.
It can temporarily shut down the infrastructure projects, laying off the workforce, until there is quiet. It can close off the sole Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Sinai. It can shutter the electricity and desalination plants, depriving Gaza of power and clean water.
This way Gaza can be kept under Israel's thumb without Israel sharing any blame. Egypt will become Gaza's visible prison wardens, just as Abbas and his Palestinian Authority have shouldered the burden of serving as jailers in much of the West Bank.
This is Israel's model for Gaza. We may soon find out whether it is shared by Egypt and the Gulf states.
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