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Inciting Unrest in Venezuela

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Every time an election or referendum was held, Chavez said their results would be respected. He didn't just say it. He meant and observed it. Duddy claimed Chavistas may cause trouble if Capriles wins. Chances, of course, are virtually nil.

Nonetheless, Duddy suggested "plausible" violence provoking scenarios:

It could erupt pre-election if Capriles looks likely to win or final results show it. 

Chavez "plausibly" claims victory, then dies or leaves office for health reasons.

Capriles wins and is inaugurated. PDVSA oil workers walk out. Chavistas throughout the country resist pro-business initiatives and/or jettisoning "moribund Chavista projects." 

Final results are too close to call or "unacceptable to the government."

A state of emergency could be imposed. It could last 90 days and be renewed. "The great unanswered question is how the government will react if it appears Chavez has lost. Unrest and violence" might follow.

Civil liberties could be suspended. Electoral results might be invalidated. "A preemptive move by the military" can't be ruled out.

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